Our weekly Ten-Pack feature has been posted by the fine folks at SportingNews.com, who have yet to figure out after nearly 14 months that I really don’t know what I’m talking about.
But I’ll pretend that I do for another week, with ten takes from Sunday’s slate of games.
The whole list is right here.
[Editor’s note: Here’s the final Week Five scouting report from former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist.]
Pittsburgh vs Jacksonville; it conjures up old thoughts of the AFC Central, when the Steelers and Jags would pound it out twice a year in the midst of the Bengals, Browns, Ravens, and Oilers. Bettis vs Brunell, McCardell vs Thigpen. Tough and physical defense, big play and opportunistic offense. The 2008 version of this rivalry has many of the same characteristics and yet brings a bit of its own flare with Pittsburgh all but limping into the game with injuries galore and Jacksonville continuing to crawl out from under a 0-2 rock to start the season.Pittsburgh, a team built around a solid running game, steady QB play and a relentless defense has to be wondering “What next?”. Willie Parker started the season at RB, then went down with a knee injury. He was replaced by rookie Rashard Mendenhall, who subsequently was lost for the season with a shoulder fracture vs Baltimore. He was replaced by FB Carey Davis, who left the game with an ankle injury. Backup LB Andre Frazier was seriously injured on the opening kickoff and starting RG Kendall Simmons was lost for the year after he tore his Achilles. QB Ben Roethlisberger has been beat up for most of the first quarter of the season and has nursed a shoulder injury all week that has kept him out of practice.
Their offensive numbers are a direct reflection of the status of their training room. Twenty-ninth in total offense, 28th in passing, 21st in rushing, 27th in 3rd down conversions, 31st in sacks allowed and dead last in successful plays.
KEY #1 will be finding some sort of offensive continuity. I’m going to go as broad based as possible. A: Establish a run game and move the chains with the short pass, and take the pressure off a fragile QB that appears one hit away from his own season-ender. Or, B: Find a way to get the playmakers involved a bit in Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, and Heath Miller. This is as fine a group as there is in the League, but when your QB has been sacked 12 times in 2 games it makes it a bit difficult getting them the ball. As tough as the Jags have been against the rush, the Steelers should probably go to the air. The Jags have struggled with their own pass rush (27th in sacks) and their ability to slow opponents on 3rd down (last). They have been subject to the big play and generally don’t appear in synch with their overall pass defense. With Roethlisberger still in question for Sunday, this could be a tall order. But I’d be more comfortable in attacking a weakness with my healthy playmaking receivers than attacking a strength with 3rd string and free agent running backs.
On defense, the Steelers bear more of a resemblance to the past. This is still a very talented and physical group, and their play has equated to a #2 overall ranking. Their ability to pressure with their 3-4 front and aggressiveness of their secondary makes it extremely difficult to throw. The Steelers have 15 sacks on the year (2nd), allow the third least net yards via the air, and QBs are throwing at an alarmingly low rate of 67.8. They force you to go the hard way (no big plays) to the end zone and have given up only 58 points for the season. Couple that with their stinginess versus the run (74 yards per game) and you see why despite their offensive woes, Pittsburgh is still 3-1.
KEY #2 will be shutting down Jacksonville’s newfound passing game. The Jags have pulled themselves up off the mat by throwing for over a 70% clip the past two weeks. Third down conversions are up over 50% and the O-line is giving QB David Garrard time to find his receivers (1 sack). That said, the Jags (on paper) have very little in the way of big-time play makers. WR Matt Jones leads the team in receiving, the next most reliable target being the outlet to RBs Maurice Jones-Drew or Fred Taylor. Look for the Steelers to put the clamps down on Jones and for safety Troy Polamalu to play a big role in shutting down RBs Taylor and Jones-Drew. His free-wheeling, attacking style plays well in defending the flats and attacking the LOS. With very few downfield threats for the Jags, Polamalu should have the green light to key on Jacksonville’s RB tandem.
Jacksonville is a very rhythm-oriented offense. They look to stay on schedule with solid movement on 1st and 2nd down. To do this they utilize the run and short passing game to keep themselves in reasonable 3rd down situations. As stated above, they lack downfield playmakers to create yardage in longer situations. Their conversion rate is top 10 in the League, but they struggle mightily when faced with 6-10 yards or longer. The Jags will have to keep the ball moving on the ground to keep the inherent Steelers pressure off Garrard. The Jags center their attack off their interior three and KEY #3 will be the ability of OC Dennis Norman (filling in for Brad Meester (biceps)) to handle NT Chris Hoke, who is filling in for Casey Hamptn. If Norman can win that battle, Taylor and Jones-Drew may find some cutback lanes inside. But if Hoke is able to press/stuff Norman at the point and force the bounce, the rest of the Steelers defense will swarm to ball carrier as they did last week vs Baltimore (3.1 per carry).
The Jags will more than likely shut down the Steeler running game with the amount of injuries that have disrupted its continuity. If Plan B above is adopted and Pittsburgh does go to the air, Jacksonville will have to get some pressure on “Big Ben” or his sub, Byron Leftwich (KEY #4). The Jags have lagged a bit in pressuring the QB this season and the Steelers front 5 on the O-Line have all done their part in contributing to the 15-sack total. Look for Jag DEs Paul Spicer and Quentin Groves on ROT Willie Colon to be an interesting match up. Spicer is getting up in age, but led Jacksonville in sacks with 7.5 in ’07. The rookie Groves was drafted in the 2nd round (’08) to bolster the pass rush off the edge. Spicer has yet to record a sack this season, while Groves has tallied one.
KEY #5 will be the punting of Mitch Berger for the Steelers. Berger has good hang time, translating to a 39.2 net off of a 42.4 average. But more significant is his ability to pin opponents inside the 20. Berger has done so 9 times this season. With the Jags looking for ball control and usually going the long way to the end zone, Berger would be a big help to his defense in forcing them to do just that. Jacksonville has only started inside their own 20 three times in ’08. Pittsburgh’s stout run defense and solid three-and-out ability could put the Jags in a hole. Their own punter Adam Podlesh is netting only 35.5. A resulting short field for a struggling offense is just what the doctor ordered.
1. Nick Folk, Cowboys.
2. Josh Scobee, Jaguars.
3. Ryan Longwell, Vikings.
4. Mason Crosby, Packers.
5. Neil Rackers, Cardinals.
6. Nate Kaeding, Chargers.
7. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots.
8. Rob Bironas, Titans.
9. Adam Vinatieri, Colts.
10. Lawrence Tynes, Giants.
11. Olindo Mare, Seahawks.
12. David Akers, Eagles.
13. Matt Prater, Broncos.
14. Robbie Gould, Bears.
15. Shaun Suisham Redskins.
16. Jeff Reed, Steelers.
17. Rian Lindell, Bills.
18. John Kasay, Panthers.
19. Matt Bryant, Bucs.
20. Martin Gramatica, Saints.
1. Cowboys.
2. Titans.
3. Bears.
4. Chargers.
5. Giants.
6. Panthers.
7. Ravens.
8. Jaguars.
9. Steelers.
10. Packers.
11. Bills.
12. Eagles.
13. Patriots.
14. Vikings.
15. Redskins.
16. 49ers.
17. Buccaneers.
18. Saints.
19. Colts.
20. Texans.
21. Seahawks.
22. Broncos.
23. Cardinals.
24. Dolphins.
25. Falcons.
26. Lions.
27. Chiefs.
28. Bengals.
1. Jason Witten, Cowboys.
2. Tony Scheffler, Broncos.
3. Antonio Gates, Chargers.
4. Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs.
5. Dallas Clark, Colts.
6. Chris Cooley, Redskins.
7. Owen Daniels, Texans.
8. Anthony Fasano, Dolphins.
9. Robert Royal, Bills.
10. John Carlson, Seahawks.
11. Donald Lee, Packers.
12. Heath Miller, Steelers.
13. Benjamin Watson, Patriots.
14. Bo Scaife, Titans.
15. Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings.
16. Greg Olsen, Bears.
17. Todd Heap, Ravens.
18. Vernon Davis, 49ers.
19. Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars.
20. Dante Rosario, Panthers.
1. Terrell Owens, Cowboys.
2. Brandon Marshall, Broncos.
3. Andre Johnson, Texans.
4. Chris Chambers, Chargers.
5. Steve Smith, Panthers.
6. Reggie Wayne, Colts.
7. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals.
8. Roddy White, Falcons.
9. Greg Jennings, Packers. (Check injury reports; Aaron Rodgers might not play.)
10. Santana Moss, Redskins.
11. Hines Ward, Steelers.
12. T.J. Housmandzadeh, Bengals.
13. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs.
14. Randy Moss, Patriots.
15. Lee Evans, Bills.
16. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals. (UPDATE: He’s out this week due to injury.)
17. Calvin Johnson, Lions.
18. Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers.
19. Wes Welker, Patriots.
20. Anthony Gonzalez, Colts.
21. DeSean Jackson, Eagles.
22. Vincent Jackson, Chargers.
23. Kevin Walter, Texans.
24. Eddie Royal, Broncos.
25. Roy Williams, Lions.
26. Bobby Engram, Seahawks.
27. Marvin Harrison, Colts.
28. Steve Breaston, Cardinals.
29. Santonio Holmes, Steelers.
30. Muhsin Muhammad, Panthers.
31. Donald Driver, Packers.
32. Bernard Berrian, Vikings.
33. Chad Johnson, Bengals.
34. Matt Jones, Jaguars.
35. Derrick Mason, Ravens.
36. Justin Gage, Titans. (UPDATE: He’s listed as doubtful.)
37. Antwaan Randle El, Redskins.
38. Bryant Johnson, 49ers.
39. Amani Toomer, Giants.
40. Ike Hilliard, Bucs.
1. LaDanian Tomlinson, Chargers.
2. Marshawn Lynch, Bills.
3. Adrian Peterson, Vikings.
4. Marion Barber, Cowboys.
5. Earnest Graham, Bucs.
6. Brian Westbrook, Eagles. (Check injury reports.)
7. Larry Johnson, Chiefs.
8. Frank Gore, 49ers.
9. Brandon Jacobs, Giants.
10. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins.
11. Joseph Addai, Colts.
12. Matt Forte, Bears.
13. Steve Slaton, Texans.
14. Reggie Bush, Saints.
15. Julius Jones, Seahawks.
16. Clinton Portis, Redskins.
17. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars.
18. Michael Turner, Falcons.
19. Edgerrin James, Cardinals.
20. Chris Johnson, Titans.
21. Fred Taylor, Jaguars.
22. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers.
23. Willis McGahee, Ravens.
24. Ryan Grant, Packers.
25. Mewelde Moore, Steelers.
26. Michael Pittman, Broncos.
27. Chris Perry, Bengals.
28. Felix Jones, Cowboys.
29. Rudi Johnson, Lions.
30. Warrick Dunn, Bucs.
31. LenDale White, Titans.
32. Chester Taylor, Vikings.
33. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers.
34. Laurence Maroney, Patriots.
35. Le’Ron McClain, Ravens.
36. Correll Buckhalter, Eagles.
37. Deuce McAllister, Saints.
38. Sammy Morris, Patriots.
39. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs.
40. Derrick Ward, Giants.
[Editor’s note: Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News covers the Giants as well as anyone. His new book, Eli Manning: The Making of a Quarterback, looks at the stunning rise of Super Bowl XLII’s MVP. Vacchiano has shared with us the following column, which looks at life for the Giants without enigmatic-yet-talented tight end Jeremy Shockey.]
‘Twas the night before Christmas in 2005 and the Giants were one win away from clinching the NFC East, but they were losing early in the game to the Washington Redskins. They were struggling and things were tense until late in the first half when they were finally able to exhale in the offensive huddle.
Because Jeremy Shockey wasn’t around.
He had injured his ankle (while committing a pass interference penalty) and his backup, Visanthe Shiancoe, was forced onto the field.
“There were plays where (Shiancoe) was running free down the middle of the field (and) Shank would come back and say, ‘I think you had me, but don’t worry, we’ll get it,’” former Giants backup quarterback Tim Hasselbeck says in my new book, Eli Manning: The Making of a Quarterback. “If that’s Jeremy, he’s thinking ‘I just had a 60-yard touchdown that Eli didn’t throw to me. I’m pissed.’ Then he comes back saying, ‘I’m wide open!’”
Added one of their teammates, who preferred to remain anonymous: “There was a calm on the sidelines that was never there before.”
Scenes like that were played out far too frequently over the previous three years, ever since Jim Fassel and his tight-end-friendly offense were replaced by Tom Coughlin’s “tom-foolery” (which is how Shockey described some of his responsibilities in Coughlin’s scheme back in 2004). And while that’s not the reason why the Giants traded Shockey to the New Orleans Saints back in July, it’s a great example of why they’re better off that they did.
Shockey, as it turned out, was more of a disruptive force for the team and for Manning than anyone ever knew.
That should be clear to anyone who watched the Giants win a Super Bowl without him last season, after he broke his leg in Week 15, or to anyone who’s watched the Giants calmly avoid a Super Bowl hangover and get off to a 3-0 start in 2008. It’s not that they and their quarterback are better off without Shockey’s enormous talent – even Manning calls that a “stupid” theory.
It’s that they are both better off without his tired act.
Just look at what they were able to do in Weeks 2 and 3 of this season, when they struggled to put away inferior opponents. It was in situations like those, when the offense would be struggling to score points against teams they knew they should beat, that Shockey would be slamming his helmet, waving his arms, cursing at his teammates and demanding the ball.
Without him, when things get tough, the Giants can do what Manning does best – calmly analyze the situation, regroup, and get their act together. After they rallied to beat the Cincinnati Bengals in overtime in Week 3, even Plaxico Burress – an admitted ego-maniac who wants the ball all the time because he thinks he’s an unstoppable football force – talked about the patience the offense showed in waiting for their opportunities.
That’s something they often didn’t have the luxury to do during the Shockey years.
In fact, one Giants coach concedes that they were often forced to design plays for Shockey for the sole purpose of keeping him happy and quiet. That’s because Shockey still thought he was living in 2002, when then-GM Ernie Accorsi traded up in the first round to get him because Fassel wanted a Shannon Sharpe-like player to be the centerpiece of his offense. Accorsi talked about how Shockey was drafted to be a “weapon” and a “play-maker” not a tight end.
Coughlin wanted a tight end.
And you can see that in his offense since Shockey got hurt last year, and suddenly a healthy Steve Smith blossomed in the third-receiver role. The Coughlin/Kevin Gilbride scheme wants to rely on a strong running game and use three- and four-receiver sets to keep the defense off balance. They use the tight end – now primarily Kevin Boss – as a blocker first, and only occasionally sprinkle him in as a weapon in the passing game.
Shockey, in his years under Coughlin, averaged 4.2 catches per game. Since Shockey went down in Week 15 last year, Boss has averaged 1.3.
And Boss doesn’t complain the way Shockey did about the “tom-foolery” in the offense, or about how they were “out-coached” as Shockey said after a blowout loss in Seattle in 2006, or the way he complained to anyone who would listen all offseason long about how misunderstood and mistreated he was in New York. Boss doesn’t engage in shouting matches with the general manager. He’s not embarrassing the organization by discussing his party habits or sexual fantasies in magazine interviews.
And, perhaps most importantly, he’s not constantly yelling in his quarterback’s ear.
In other words, as Gilbride says in my book, when Shockey went down with his season-ending injury last year, “Some of the volatility was gone, so it made it a little easier.”
Under those conditions, since last Dec. 16, Manning has begun his ascent to the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks.
And it can’t just be a coincidence that without Shockey, the Giants have gone 8-1.
[Editor’s note: Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist gives us an exclusive preview of the surprisingly compelling battle between the 4-0 Bills and 2-2 Cardinals.]
Wow, Buffalo is 4-0 at the quarter-mile mark! Arizona got off to a quick start against San Fran and Miami, but have since come back down to earth with back-to-back losses. Now the Bills take the long trip to Phoenix and look to go 5-0 for the first time since 1991. They’ve used the formula of a suffocating defense and manageable QB play that has Bills fans everywhere dreaming of the glory years of the late 80s and early 90s. The Cards got “Favred” last week and need to rebound quickly with Dallas and Carolina lined up the next two games.
At this point, Buffalo’s offense is a bit of an enigma. QB Trent Edwards is not the type to beat you on his own, but his steady play has kept games close for three quarters and his leadership/poise have brought Buffalo back to victory for three straight weeks in the 4th. Edwards is ranked 5th in completion percentage and 7th in yards per completion. He’s thrown only 2 interceptions and has led the Bills offense to 109 points (tied for 7th in the League). But Edwards has also been sacked 11 times, has a 34.6% third-down conversion rate, ranks 23rd in three-and-outs and has generated only 3 drives of 10 plays or more.
The running game has struggled to produce to its capability as well. Marshawn Lynch has yet to rush for 100 yards and is averaging 3.5 per carry (4.0 in ’07). It’s the quick-strike scoring and big play production of Buffalo’s offense that has led them to four straight wins. WRs Josh Reed and Lee Evans (new contract), coupled with TE Robert Royal, lead a group of receivers that are ripping off a high number of big-play receptions (20+ yards) over the course of the first quarter of ’08.
KEY #1 will be Edwards’ ability to take advantage of a fragile Arizona secondary that allowed 6 touchdown passes, 4 pass completions of 20+, and another 6 of 10+ yards. Buffalo has been rather inefficient running on 1st down and finds itself faced with multiple 2nd and 3rd down situations, 6+ yards to go. The Bills conversion rate is not in the upper half of the League. Offensive coordinator Turk Schonert and his staff will look to the big-play to keep drives alive and create quick-scoring opportunities. The Cardinals have given up 10 such drives (less than 4 plays) this season. The 2008 version of the Buffalo Bills defense would make Bruce Smith, Darryl Talley, and Cornelius Bennett proud. This group has gelled behind the play of Aaron Schobel, Paul Posluszny, and Donte Whitner. They bring a hard charging, aggressive style of play that has disrupted opponents with incessant pressure. They lead the League in preventing 3rd down conversions, have surrendered only 63 points, and have forced a high number of three and out drives. After 4 games they are ranked 7th in total defense. The Bills have smothered opponents in the passing game and this plays well to the strength of the Cardinals.
KEY #2 will be the play of DC’s Terrence McGee (who might miss the game with a knee) and Jabari Greer. Arizona will be hard pressed to replace the production of Anquan Boldin (sinus fracture), but #3 receiver Steve Breaston had a big 9-catch, 122 yard game last week. Teamed up with the explosive Larry Fitzgerald, the Cardinals will still have plenty of targets against a Bills secondary that has been somewhat suspect to the big-play pass. Greer (1) and McGee (2) have produced the only interceptions to date. They have 4 and 5 passes defended respectively, but each will have their hands full against the size and strength of Fitzgerald and the short-area quickness of Breaston. Arizona QB Kurt Warner would like to atone for the 5-sack and 3-interception performance versus the Jets. Look for Warner to test the Bills deep early and for Arizona to employ even more shotgun in the face of Buffalo’s pressure.For Arizona, this couldn’t be a more important week. Currently tied with the 49ers, the Cardinals need to bounce back and show this isn’t the same old Arizona football. They face two more playoff contenders in Weeks 6 and 7, so a win over the undefeated Bills would go a long way in establishing their own playoff aspirations. Confidence, even at the professional level, is paramount. Up until last week’s meltdown, the veteran Warner had done an admirable job in moving this offense by avoiding the turnover, sustaining drives on 3rd down, and avoiding pressure with quick reads and a good release. His receiver corps has the ability to create the big play on their own, so Warner has just had to stay within the offense and avoid critical mistakes.
Arizona will have to find a way to keep the Bills honest and respect the run. Edgerrin James and company are tied at 25th in rushing yards per game, and big plays via the run have been few and far between. What James and backup RB Tim Hightower have done is keep the chains moving on third-and-short situations. The running game has done just enough to complement Warner’s passing to keep the Cardinals on the move. Rarely does Arizona stall out after 3 plays and they have the ability to control the clock with a balanced attack. Buffalo’s short-yardage run defense has been almost impenetrable. The Bills are also first in the League preventing 3rd down conversions. KEY #3 will be the play of OG Deuce Lutui, along with OC Lyle Sendlein. The Cardinals have found the most room to run behind their big right guard (6’4″ 332 lbs). Lutui will more than likely be battling DT Marcus Stroud and the Bills have shut down the right side interior at a rate of less than 2 yards per carry. It will be another long day for Warner if the Cardinals can’t produce some on the ground.
Arizona certainly has to find a way to temper the big-play ability of WR Lee Evans. But more importantly I think they need to disrupt the rhythm of QB Trent Edwards (KEY #4). Edwards is not the best at avoiding pressure, having been sacked 11 times already. His passing efficiency drops dramatically in blitz situations. As a result, Buffalo has struggled converting on 3rd down (especially long) and is run off the field after 3 plays at a 27.5% rate. This is exactly what head coach Ken Whisenhunt hopes to do; clamp down on the long pass, bring the pressure on Edwards, and force the turnover via downs or off the pick/fumble. Arizona needs to control the pace of this game and to do so, and so will need to be much more efficient on first & second downs. (Note: A successful play on 1st down is 40% of the needed yards, on 2nd down it’s 60%.) Force 3rd & long, bring the pressure via the blitz or off the edge. Edwards won 2 of 6 in ’07 when passing for less than 60%. Thus far he has yet to have a game under that threshold.
KEY #5 rests in the hands of the Cardinals’ punt coverage unit (top 10 rank). Buffalo has averaged over 15 yards per return, even without Roscoe Parrish (thumb). The veteran Dirk Johnson has been averaging a respectable 42 yards per punt, but netting only 37. The explosiveness of the Bills return game can flip a field in favor of Buffalo and give Trent Edwards’ offense opportunities to hit the quick strike score. Arizona has had only 2 punts returned against them this season.
[Editor’s note: Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist looks at three games per week. This week, his first offering is Sunday’s contest between two teams with one loss each, the Bucs and the Broncos.]
They say you can never go home again, but Brian Griese returns to the city that drafted him as the heir to John Elway when Tampa Bay takes on Denver in Week 5. Both teams stand at 3-1, not necessarily a testament to how they’ve played as much as a reflection of survival in the National Football League. This could easily be a battle of 1-3 teams, but “you are what you are” and Tampa comes to Denver on a three-game win streak, the Broncos off their first loss of the season to division rival K.C.The Denver offense has been nothing short of spectacular. This team has so many weapons to choose from and has done a great job spreading around the workload. Jay Cutler is on the verge of becoming one of a hand full of elite QB’s in this League. With every game you can see his confidence and skill come to the forefront. WRs Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal present a quandary for opposing secondaries. Marshall uses his tremendous size and strength, Royal does it with speed and quickness. TE Tony Scheffler displays the hands and route ability of a WR, but creates a mismatch on LB’s and safeties. The running game has taken a backseat to the downfield pass, but has still been fairly efficient on the legs of Selvin Young, Andre Hall, and Michael Pittman.However, for as talented and explosive a unit as they are this is still a young football team. With youth comes a penchant for mistakes, and the Broncos found a way in Week 4 to lose in spite of talented personnel. Cutler forced too many passes into coverage (creating two interceptions), Marshall and Royal both fumbled after the catch, and for the first time pressure appeared to shake the offensive line. Despite the big numbers and high rankings across most categories, offensive production has been on a steady decline the last three weeks; completion percentage, QB rating, TD passes, rushing yards, and average per rush, while the defense has given up 38, 32, and 33 points. Have opponents figured them out, or is this the tell-tale sign of youth? KEY #1 will be how well Cutler bounces back from last week’s loss and takes on the dangerous secondary of the Bucs, specifically safeties Tanard Jackson and Jermaine Phillips. The Broncos love to attack the seams and hit the crossing routes, giving their explosive receivers an opportunity to create some extra yardage on their own. Cutler will need to be aware of the safeties and the drop of the LB’s. The Buccaneers will fall back to box in the routes underneath and then come down hard on the receivers to force the drop or fumble. Both Jackson and Phillips are very adept at pass coverage and will be looking to make plays on the ball as often as possible. At this point, the only thing that has slowed the Broncos offense has been itself. Tampa’s defense will be more than obliged to help them do just that.
I hate to be “master of the obvious” but Denver must get some pressure from its defensive ends. KEY #2 will be the ability to create some heat off the edge. Griese was sacked twice in Week 2, but kept his pants clean versus Chicago and Green Bay. Sack specialist Elvis Dumervil has only one after four games. Backup DT Kenny Peterson leads the team with two. The knock on Griese over the years has been his tendency to panic in the face of pressure and force the mistake. Tampa is dead last in passing efficiency when facing the blitz. Denver would rather put some pressure on the Bucs with a four-man rush, but look for Bob Slowik to bring the extra man to create what they haven’t been able to produce with the one-on-one matchups. The only problem with that strategy is that Denver is one of the worst teams in the NFL disrupting the pass off the blitz. Former 1st round pick Jarvis Moss was activated Weeks 3 and 4, having sat out against Oakland and San Diego. Critics see Moss as lacking the necessary strength off the edge, but he has a long/quick first step and excellent length that needs to be employed to his advantage. If the Broncos can collapse the edges and force Griese to step up, move around, or run, they’ll create some miscues by Tampa’s QB (6 ints in the last 2 games). If not, the Bucs have their own set of weapons that has produced the third most big plays (57 of 10+ yards) in the League, leading to late scoring surges the past two weeks. Denver’s defense has surrendered 48 fourth-quarter points, not the way you like to finish.
Tampa would like to come into Invesco Field and quiet the hometown crowd with a ball-control offense behind Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn. This tandem has just about blitzed every opponent (sans the Bears) with the ground attack. Graham is averaging some 5.9 yards per carry, Dunn is complementing with his own 4.7. The Bucs like to take it to the defense straight up the middle behind OC Jeff Faine and OGs Arron Sears & Davin Joseph. Graham is dangerous in the open field and ripped off long runs of 46, 47 and 68 yards. KEY #3 is the downhill collision of Graham and Dunn against the Bronco LBs. The Bucs will look to balance first down with their running game and create more 2nd downs, medium to short, where they’ve been efficiently productive in converting to 1st down. Denver’s defense tends to step up in 3rd and short situations, but struggles more when playing off versus stacking the LOS. Tampa will want to stay out of multiple 3rd downs and keep the chains moving off 1st and 2nd. This offense is one of the very best producing the long drive and eating up the clock. Against the Broncos on the road there is no better formula. Denver couldn’t stop KC’s Larry Johnson and Tampa will force them to prove they can stop Graham and Dunn.
I’ve watched the Bucs the past few weeks and their defense has been paced by the interior play of DTs Chris Hovan and Jovan Haye. They can create disruption with both power and strength and their ability to occupy blocking schemes opens up one-on-one situations for DEs Gaines Adams, Kevin Carter and Greg White. Adams has the length and athleticism to challenge rookie OT Ryan Clady and appears to be developing into a playmaking force for the Bucs. The veterans Carter and White will be faced up on 2nd year OT Ryan Harris. The two would be best served to pull out all their tricks in taking on the talented Harris. Clady and Harris have been a pleasant surprise as young bookends for the Broncos. But youth can be exploited and last week the Chiefs had them both off balance a bit. Look for KEY #4 to be the ability of Monte Kiffin’s front four to pressure Cutler on their own. Cutler has been solid in the face of the blitz and Tampa will be looking to clog the passing lanes with as many defenders as they can. “Four on five” will determine the probability of success in stopping the Broncos potent offense.
KEY #5 will be the opportunity presented to Bronco KR Andre Hall. Tampa’s Matt Bryant is not one to create a lot of touchbacks, even with the advantage of the Colorado altitude. Look for Hall to have a few chances at cracking the stingy Buccaneer coverage unit that is ranked in the top 10 after the first quarter of the season. Nothing swings the momentum like an explosive return.
1. Tony Romo, Cowboys.
2. Jay Cutler, Broncos.
3. Philip Rivers, Chargers.
4. Drew Brees, Saints.
5. Donovan McNabb, Eagles.
6. Peyton Manning, Colts.
7. Eli Manning, Giants.
8. Jake Delhomme, Panthers.
9. Trent Edwards, Bills.
10. Brian Griese, Bucs.
11. Aaron Rodgers, Packers. (Check injury reports.)
12. Jason Campbell, Redskins.
13. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers. (Check injury reports.)
14. Kurt Warner, Cardinals.
15. David Garrard, Jaguars.
16. Carson Palmer, Bengals. (Check injury reports.)
17. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks.
18. Matt Schaub, Texans.
19. Chad Pennington, Dolphins.
20. J.T. O’Sullivan, 49ers.
21. Matt Cassel, Patriots.
22. Kyle Orton, Bears.
23. Kerry Collins, Titans.
24. Gus Frerotte, Vikings.
25. Damon Huard, Chiefs.
26. Joe Flacco, Ravens.
27. Jon Kitna, Lions.
28. Matt Ryan, Falcons.
[Editor’s note: Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist breaks down the Monday night battle between the Ravens and the Steelers.]
Monday Night Football was advertised as two bully defenses slugging it out for the right to stay atop the AFC North, and despite the final score of 23-20 (high scoring for these two) it didn’t disappoint. Right from the opening kickoff there were big hits galore and the physical level of play didn’t subside until Pittsburgh ended things on a Jeff Reed 46-yard field goal in overtime. I figured this to be an ultimate test of wills between two teams that pride themselves on tough defense, a good running game, and young, opportunistic QB’s. Baltimore’s Joe Flacco had led the Ravens to a 2-0 start behind a very measured passing game that was designed to take as much pressure off the rookie QB as possible. Flacco had been consistently efficient in moving the chains with short to intermediate routes, and finding the outlet/dump-off receiver. His completion percentage was around 60, but was averaging only slightly over 5 yards per completion. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron had kept the Ravens offense in step by running on 1st and 2nd down with a high degree of success, then by placing Flacco in 3rd down situations perfect for the short passing game. Flacco and the Ravens had thrived, defeating both Cincinnati and Cleveland with a high 3rd down conversion rate and controlling the time of possession in their favor. KEY #1 for me was protecting Flacco from “Steel Curtain” pressure and the Ravens struggled doing so. Flacco was sacked 5 times, hurried another 6, and the Baltimore offense was off rhythm for most of the night. The Ravens were held to under 3 yards per carry on 1st down, struggled to complete anything on 2nd and what had normally been 3rd and short for the first two weeks, transformed into multiple 3rd and long situations. Despite 7 of 17 on 3rd downs, it felt as if Baltimore was off schedule with six 3 and outs.
With Willie Parker (knee) out of the game, the Steelers had to turn to rookie RB Reshard Mendenhall to carry the bulk of the Pittsburgh ground game. Mendenhall has the perfect set of measurables for the position, possessing both “size & speed” to both “pound & sprint” for tough yards. The Ravens defense was at the top of just about every statistical category on defense and KEY #2 was preventing Mendenhall from ever getting started and thus stifling the Steeler offensive plans. Unfortunately for the Ravens, Mendenhall went down with a shoulder injury (fracture) and is lost for the season. The combination of backups Carey Davis and Mewelde Moore provided little punch. All 3 would combine for only 58 yards on 25 carries, but Moore came up with a big 24-yard reception to set up the game-winning field goal. For his part, Baltimore NT Justin Bannon finished with 4 tackles and did a noticeably good job in tying up interior block schemes to allow MLB Ray Lewis (13 tackles) to free flow to the hole. These two played an integral part in shutting down the inside run for the Ravens.
I felt with the job Baltimore had done in stuffing their opponents on the ground, then bringing pressure on a consistent basis to disrupt 3rd down, Pittsburgh would need to create some big plays in the passing game with Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward (KEY #3). Both were being employed with routes under the 10=yard mark and the Steelers would need the duo to create some offense of their own. I was specifically looking for how much these two could create after the catch, knowing fully well that the Ravens have one of (if not the best) tackling secondaries in the NFL. SS Dawan Landry and DC Samari Rolle were out with injuries. The Ravens might be a bit suspect in pulling down the Steelers’ playmakers via the pass. As it turned out, the big plays were there, but the overall level of production was down. Holmes finished with 3 receptions for 61 yards (long of 38, with another of 19) and Ward added 2 for 57 (long of 49). Pittsburgh would struggle all night to sustain any drives of significance, but three (11, 7 and 7) would lead to field goals.
I felt KEY #4 would be the response of the Steeler defense to the hard running of Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee. Both rush with a determined style that can wear out a defense over the course of 60 minutes. I thought the Steelers would need to limit the duo on first down to under 3.0 yards per (they did at 2.3) and I felt that to stay on schedule, Baltimore needed to produce at least 4.0 yards per carry (they didn’t at 3.1). The Steel Curtain was able to control the Raven RB’s to 105 yards on 29 carries. As discussed in KEY #1, Baltimore never found a rhythm to their offense as a result of struggling to run on first down. N o big plays came via the ground as well, the best being a 12 yard carry by McGahee. Again, six 3 & outs.
My 5th and final key was the punting of Sam Koch for Baltimore. In any defensive struggle, field position is paramount. On the road, the ability for your punter to get your offense out of a jam and flip the field is huge. Koch has one of the strongest legs in the League and would serve as a valuable asset in backing up the Steelers time and again with his booming punts. He averaged 47.4 gross, with a 43.9 net! Koch also pinned the Steelers inside their own 20 twice, a feat he had struggled to accomplish the previous two games. If you recall, I also stated that any single mistake that led to a short (or in this case shorter) field could determine the final outcome. Koch was on his game all night but for one punt of 27 yards from his own 40. Pittsburgh took possession at their own 33 and four plays later scored on a 38 yard pass to Santonio Holmes. The Steelers would pull to within three (13-10) late in the 3rd quarter.
For our Wednesday SportingNews.com item, we’ve taken a closer look at the legal mess that now will unfold between the Raiders and former head coach Lane Kiffin.
Tuesday’s press conference from owner Al Davis was the opening shot. Eventually, the battle will culminate in a hearing at the league office in New York.
The stakes are high, literally and figuratively. Kiffin reportedly is owed more than $3 million. And if he prevails, teams will be more reluctant in the future to fire coaches and to stiff them under circumstances where the coaches’ behavior justifies not only getting fired but also not getting paid.
[Editor’s note: Agents Drew and Jason Rosenhaus have authored a new book, titled “Next Question,” published by Berkeley Hardcover. Pursuant to our new PFT Book Club thing, we invited Drew to submit a guest column regarding his book. You can purchase it by clicking the “Next Question” ads on the site.]
You read Pro Football Talk because you want to know what’s really going on. You want to know the stories the reporters can’t or won’t tell you. “Next Question” takes it one step further and tells you everything you ever wanted to know about the business of the NFL. I’ll take you inside the NFL front offices with Jerry Jones, Bill Parcells, and Dan Snyder. We’ll take you into the homes, offices, and hang out spots of superstar players like Terrell Owens, Jeremy Shockey, Clinton Portis, Warren Sapp, and dozens more. “Next Question” is all about the roller coaster ride you have to survive in order to overcome the challenges of being an agent and making it to the top of the crazy NFL world.
No story personifies “Next Question” better than the Terrell Owens ongoing saga. I first signed Terrell as a client in April 2005. He had just helped bring the Eagles to the Super Bowl. Toward the end of the 2004 season, Terrell suffered a broken leg. Recovering in miraculous time, Terrell risked his career to help his team and delivered an outstanding Super Bowl performance. Although he had only played one year into a seven-year $48.6 million contract, Terrell felt that he had outperformed his contract. When he and I crossed paths for the first time in April 2005, I agreed and he hired me shortly thereafter to get him a new contract. This was no small task as the Philadelphia Eagle front office was as tough as they come.As expected, they refused. A line was drawn in the sand and a battle of wills ensued. Seven weeks into the 2005 season, after the nation followed the drama of Terrell not getting along with his quarterback and coaches, Terrell was suspended and sent home for the rest of the season, costing him $2,489,705. Instead of getting my client a new deal, he lost a fortune, was suspended, and his season was over. Forget the raise, the experts predicted we’d be lucky to get the minimum next year. As I faced the music at a now infamous press conference on Terrell’s front lawn, a reporter tore into me, rhetorically asking on national TV, “Drew, what have you done for T.O. other than get him kicked off the team?”I felt embarrassed and was in pain, but I took it and stood tall, answering, “Next Question.” At that time, things looked like they were going from bleak to hopeless but I never gave up. Neither did Terrell. Despite being buried alive, we kept fighting our way out. That’s what “Next Question” is all about. It’s more than an answer. It’s our philosophy that no matter how impossible the situation appears, always believe that you can find a way to win through hard work and smart work. The principle of “Next Question” is to block out the negativity and focus on what to do next in order to win. That’s what we did and that’s how Terrell became a Dallas Cowboy in 2006 earning $31.5 million over the next three seasons instead of $20 million with the Eagles.
The “Next Question” principle is one of a dozen that I learned the hard way during my 20-year roller coaster ride as an NFL agent. The “Next Question” book is all about those principles which made me pay when I ignored them and brought me success in one of the toughest businesses when I followed them. Put yourself in my shoes, then apply them to your business, and they should do the same for you.
Here’s our version of the meaningless list of teams based on perceived strength relative to each other.
We post the order, you post the comments. If (when) we see any we like, we’ll add them to the official list.
1. New York Giants (3-0).
2. Tennessee Titans (4-0).
3. Washington Redskins (3-1).
4. Buffalo Bills (4-0).
5. Dallas Cowboys (3-1).
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1).
7. Philadelphia Eagles (2-2).
8. Carolina Panthers (3-1).
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1).
10. Denver Broncos (3-1).
11. New England Patriots (2-1).
12. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2).
13. Green Bay Packers (2-2).
14. San Diego Chargers (2-2).
15. Indianapolis Colts (1-2).
16. New Orleans Saints (2-2).
17. Baltimore Ravens (2-1).
18. New York Jets (2-2).
19. Chicago Bears (2-2).
20. Arizona Cardinals (2-2).
21. Atlanta Falcons (2-2).
22. Minnesota Vikings (1-3).
23. San Francisco 49ers (2-2).
24. Seattle Seahawks (1-2).
25. Cleveland Browns (1-3).
26. Miami Dolphins (1-2).
27. Kansas City Chiefs (1-3).
28. Oakland Raiders (1-3).
29. Houston Texans (0-3).
30. Cincinnati Bengals (0-4).
31. Detroit Lions (0-3).
32. St. Louis Rams (0-4).
Though we’ve officially discontinued the Monday night live blogs, we unofficially reserve the right to do one whenever the mood strikes us.
It strikes us tonight, as the Steelers and Ravens prepare to do battle at Heinz Field.
Enjoy.
[Editor’s note: Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist takes a look at Sunday’s battle between the Cowboys and the Redskins, in their last meeting ever at Texas Stadium.]
The first of two meetings between these two longtime division rivals certainly lived up to the storied history of games between the Cowboys and Redskins over the years. Dallas was on a three-week roll, disposing of their opponents with a big-play offense and hard-hitting defense that had pundits predicting Super Bowl XLIII before the end of the week. Washington was coming into Irving with the intent of staying in stride with the rest of the ultra-competitive NFC East.
In the end, it was the Redskins that made up some ground. Washington won in workmanlike fashion behind a balanced and ball-controlling offensive attack, coupled with a physical and soundly stout defense. The Redskins were able to clamp down on the Cowboys’ explosive weapons and unleash some of there own. Key #1 was for Dallas to get off to a quick start. The Redskins had shown a certain stinginess at the start and end of their first 3 games. Washington had surrendered just a total of 10 points over 6 quarters (1st & 4th). Dallas has relied upon its big-play ability to build early leads, and then close out opponents behind the running game of Marion Barber III. I thought Terrell Owens was due for some big production. T.O. had been a thorn in the side of the Redskins last year (Week 11) catching 8 balls for 173 yards and 4 TD’s. During the last few weeks the offense had focused on TE Jason Witten, and it was time for a T.O. breakout.
Dallas went to Owens on their first play from scrimmage, for a 7-yard completion. Three plays later, QB Tony Romo would attempt to go deep to Owens up the right sideline. All the credit goes to Redskin’s DC Shawn Springs. Springs was excellent in the first half, keeping Owens in check and slowing the explosive receiver. Romo was forced to go to his secondary target, Patrick Crayton, who finished the first half with 6 receptions of his own. But the Redskins kept (for the most part) the big plays in check and smothered the Dallas ground game. This allowed the ‘Skins to overcome their usual slow start and build a 17-10 halftime lead behind seventeen 2nd quarter points. It was only the second time Dallas had trailed at the half, falling behind to Philly after giving up 24 points (again in the 2nd quarter).
I focused on TE Chris Cooley as my 2nd KEY for the Redskins. Washington had done very little over the first 3 games in getting their RB’s involved in the passing game for QB Jason Campbell. I thought Cooley might be a key in keeping some drives alive and serving as an outlet in the Redskins’ passing attack. Cooley’s numbers were solid, but he caught two 3rd down passes to keep the chains moving (both on scoring drives) and was targeted on two others. He would finish the game with 4 receptions for 28 yards.
Washington did go into Dallas and send a message. Their win has established the NFC East (top to bottom) with the most playoff contenders from one division. Winning on the road in Dallas is a major accomplishment against a very talented and driven Cowboys team. Dallas had been clicking on all cylinders and QB Tony Romo was an integral part in why they entered Sunday’s game at 3-0. Romo can pick clean any defense that doesn’t put pressure on him, but his numbers tend to fall with defenders in his face. I thought KEY #3 would be the ability for Washington to put some heat on the Dallas QB without DE Jason Taylor. That would leave the veteran Andre Carter to pick up the slack. Amazingly, the Redskins won without producing a single sack and only 2 QB hurries. It was the tight play of the secondary that held down the Cowboys and their inability to move the ball on the ground. Dallas turned 50% of their 3rd downs, but also produced four three and outs, and trailed almost 16 minutes in time of possession.
What was the difference? KEY #4 for me was Clinton Portis. I felt Clinton had too much talent and big-play ability to not be making a larger contribution. Portis took control of the ground game and pounded out 121 yards on 21 carries. I felt a key stat would be his ability to average over 4.0 yards per carry. He averaged 5.8 per. With Portis and Betts able to establish the run, Dallas could not put the pressure on Campbell that it was accustomed to. The Redskins had the Cowboys a bit off balance in the first half and were able to close out the second with a steady diet of “ground chuck” behind Samuels, Kendall, Rabach, Thomas, and Jansen. This was an impressive performance against an opponent that had held its previous 3 foes to 84 yards on the ground. Portis stepped up big in this big game.
My final KEY (#5) was the ability for WAS punter Durant Brooks to step up his play. Brooks had struggled over the first three weeks with only a 32.5 net. With a quick-strike offense staring at you on the other sideline, the Redskins needed every aspect of their special teams to create long field situations for the Cowboys. Brooks was up to the task. His net of 42.8 was some 10 yards farther than his average and he was able to pin the Cowboys inside their 20 twice with subsequent drives ending in a punt and an interception.
Our ten-pack of takes from the Sunday that was in the NFL is now available exclusively at SportingNews.com.
This week, we look at the Bills, the NFC East, the lackluster play (to date) of Jared Allen, the lingering need for a change to the overtime rules, and other stuff.
You can read it right here.
[Editor’s note: Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist provides us with exclusive scouting reports for three games each week. He then reviews what happened in each of the three games. His first submission for Week Four appears below.]
This turned out to be anything but the “Bay of Pigs”, as two of the NFC’s best squared off in one of the more exciting early games on Sunday. I spoke of the momentum swing in my pregame analysis and the need for both teams to influence the pendulum. With four lead changes and the hometown Bucs jumping out to a 13-point second half lead, this game would eventually come down to the final two minutes as Tampa Bay improved to 3-1 and the Packers suddenly find themselves at .500 and with an injured starting QB (shoulder) going into the second quarter of the season.
Brian Griese threw an astounding 67 times in the Bucs’ victory over Chicago last week. Griese found a reliable tandem, not in the normal duo of Ike Hilliard and Joey Galloway, but rather Antonio Bryant and former first-round pick Michael Clayton. The two combined for 15 receptions and almost 200 yards against the Bears. I felt with the Packers secondary a bit beat up (Al Harris out, Charles Woodson hobbled, and Atari Bigby injured) the Tampa passing attack might have another big day.
KEY #1 for me was the consistency of the Bucs’ receiver corps carrying over from the performance in Week 3. Griese would have to be able to rely on his wideouts getting open on 2nd and 3rd down situations, and someone was going to have to do it other than Ike Hilliard. Though not up to the numbers of last week, Bryant and Clayton turned 7 receptions into 67 yards. The Packers’ defense was admirable, but suspect in a few areas. The front seven were 50% in holding the Bucs’ rushing attack to under 5 yards on first down, but the Tampa turned 7 attempts into 2nd and short, with two going for first downs of 11 and 47 yards, the last on an Earnest Graham burst that set up Tampa’s final score with 2 minutes to go. The secondary broke up eight passes and forced 3 Griese interceptions. However a costly Woodson illegal contact penalty kept a Buccaneers scoring drive alive in the second quarter. All in all the passing game provided just enough balance to a day that belonged to Graham and Dunn.
Tampa’s 2nd KEY would be pressure on Aaron Rodgers. Going into Week 4 Rodgers had yet to throw an interception and his steady play had kept the Packers offense on schedule. With the Bucs predominantly a 4-man rush defense, I felt DT’s Chris Hovan and Jovan Haye had played disruptive roles over the past few weeks and forced a lot of inside attention to opponent blocking schemes. Second-year DE Gaines Adams might benefit from this havoc and provide Tampa with some needed pressure off the edge. Rodgers had been suspect to the Dallas rush a week earlier, dropping below 60% for the first time this season. The Bucs were able to create pressure to the tune of 3 sacks and 6 hurries. Adams recorded one QH of his own, and added an interception and PBU to counter the Packers passing attack. Rodgers threw 3 picks and finished slightly above 50%. The Pack converted only four of thirteen 3rd down opportunities, with only two going to wideouts.
KEY #2 coupled closely with Green Bay’s KEY #3, establishing a ground attack that had disappeared since a Week 1 victory over the Vikings. With no semblance of a rushing attack, opponents have been free to tee off on Rodgers with a defensive game plan set on pressuring the young QB. Kudos go to Tampa for shutting down Ryan Grant and Brandon Jackson. Sixteen carries for 20 yards forces very little respect and the ability for Tampa to reach KEY #2 flowed from Green Bay’s inability to establish KEY #3. The Bucs’ defense smothered Green Bay at the LOS in the first half and, as the Packers fell behind in the 3rd quarter, Tampa forced head coach Mike McCarthy to the air almost exclusively. Green Bay chose to attack the Buccaneers mostly between the tackles and found very little room to run. The return of OC Scott Wells and the shift of Jason Spitz back to ROG did little to infuse any life into a ground game that has all but vanished for the Packers.
KEY #4 for me would be the play of Packers LB’s Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk against the run. I thought with Tampa struggling to convert in 3rd and short situations and coach Jon Gruden preferring to go to the air, Green Bay would be in position to press the Buc WR’s and reroute, if not disrupt, the Tampa passing game. Instead, Buc RB’s Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn ran for a combined 174 yards. Green Bay was at times off balance in predicting Tampa’s mode of attack (regardless of down) and couldn’t get their defense off the field in the second half. Barnett finished tied as the 2nd leading tackler, but Hawk was quieted to only 2 total. The Bucs chewed up almost 6 minutes in the 4th quarter behind their running game, setting up a go-ahead field goal with 2:28 left. The production void was filled by SLB Brady Poppinga, but Hawk has been the creating plays in the backfield with his ability to quickly knife through the hole and force the action on the opponent’s side of the LOS.
KEY #5 was the head-to-head match up of PK’s Mason Crosby and Matt Bryant. We’ve all now heard about the untimely and tragic death of Bryant’s young son. In my opinion, it took a great deal of courage and fortitude to go out just one day after the funeral and perform on the NFL’s center stage. Bryant was no less than brilliant. The numbers won’t break any records, nor necessarily make any postgame highlights, but Bryant went 3 for 3 in field goals (23, 36 & 24 yards) and hit all 3 PAT attempts. He more than did his part in contributing to this victory, his mere presence taking an immense amount of pressure off the organization to find a temporary replacement. My accolades to Matt, and my prayers to the Bryant family.
1. Nick Folk, Cowboys.
2. Rob Bironas, Titans.
3. Rian Lindell, Bills.
4. Nate Kaeding, Chargers.
5. Mason Crosby, Packers.
6. Jeff Reed, Steelers.
7. Matt Prater, Broncos.
8. Josh Scobee, Jaguars.
9. Joe Nedney, 49ers.
10. Ryan Longwell, Vikings.
11. John Kasay, Panthers.
12. Neil Rackers, Cardinals.
13. David Akers, Eagles.
14. Robbie Gould, Bears.
15. Shaun Suishan, Redskins.
16. Matt Stover, Ravens.
17. Martin Gramatica, Saints.
18. Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders.
19. Jason Elam, Falcons.
20. Kris Brown, Texans.
1. Bills.
2. Chargers.
3. Steelers.
4. Ravens.
5. Bears.
6. Titans.
7. Cowboys.
8. Eagles.
9. Panthers.
10. Packers.
11. Vikings.
12. Jaguars.
13. Jets.
14. Bucs.
15. Cardinals.
16. Broncos.
17. Falcons.
18. Redskins.
19. Texans.
20. Saints.
21. 49ers.
22. Bengals.
23. Browns.
24. Raiders.
25. Rams.
26. Chiefs.
1. Jason Witten, Cowboys.
2. Antonio Gates, Chargers.
3. Tony Scheffler, Broncos.
4. Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs.
5. Chris Cooley, Redskins.
6. Kellen Winslow, Browns.
7. Owen Daniels, Texans.
8. Donald Lee, Packers.
9. Robert Royal, Bills.
10. Vernon Davis, 49ers.
11. Greg Olsen, Bears.
12. Heath Miller, Steelers.
13. Todd Heap, Ravens.
14. Chris Baker, Jets.
15. Bo Scaife, Titans.
16. Randy McMichael, Rams.
17. Desmond Clark, Bears.
18. Brent Celek, Eagles. (L.J. Smith is doubtful.)
19. Visante Shiancoe, Vikings.
20. Zach Miller, Raiders.
21. Dante Rosario, Panthers.
22. Billy Miller, Saints.
23. Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars.
24. Alge Crumpler, Titans.
25. Dustin Keller, Jets.
[Editor’s note: Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist provides us with scouting reports each week. His third and final report for Week Four focuses on the Monday night game.]
The Baltimore Ravens won a Super Bowl behind a stifling defense, pound-it-out rushing attack, and a QB who managed the game well. The formula worked perfectly, and to a certain degree was replicated by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a few years later. The 2008 version of the Ravens appears to have the same makings of the championship group of 2000; strong defense, solid running game, manageable QB play. Pittsburgh was traveling down the same path as their division rivals until they ran into Philly in Week 3. The Eagles shut down Willie Parker, were able to get just enough offense to build a lead, and Ben Roethlisberger struggled through injury and subpar performance.
Now the two meet in Week 4 for the right to stay atop the AFC North after the first quarter of seasonal play. The story out of Maryland thus far has the been the emergence of rookie QB Joe Flacco. Flacco’s lack of a Division I resume had many wondering how he would perform on the big stage of the National Football League. His numbers aren’t overwhelming to date, but he has guided his unit to just enough offense in victories over division foes Cincinnati and Cleveland. His completion percentage hovers around 60%, and he has yet to throw a TD pass. His longest completion is for 19 yards and he’s averaging just over 5 yards per pass. He threw two picks against the Browns and was sacked for the first (and only) time this season. All that said, the rookie finds himself leading his team to a 2-0 record.
KEY #1 for Baltimore will be protecting their young QB from the onslaught of Steelers determined to make Flacco’s night miserable. Flacco struggled in the first two games with his efficiency in the face of the blitz. The Ravens’ offensive philosophy is very rhythmic in its approach. Run the ball on first down (4.5 avg), run the ball on second down (5.01 avg), and stay simple & relatively balanced on 3rd down. Doing so has led to a 42.9% conversion rate on 3rd down and almost 7 more minutes of possession time over their opponents (a must for BAL on the road). OT’s Adam Terry and Jared Gaither will have their hands full in keeping the perimeter of the pocket free and clear. Flacco has the ability to hurt a defense with his feet (38 yard TD run vs CIN) and the Steelers would be best served pinning him in. The Steelers defense is stifling against the run, and the Ravens will more than likely find themselves in multiple 3rd and long situations. Their ability to hold off the rush and give Flacco time is critical. The Steelers have 10 sacks and 6 interceptions over the course of three weeks and will look to pressure the young QB into mistakes. But both Derek Anderson (CLV) and Donovan McNabb (PHI) were able to exploit this same pressure on 3rd down when given protection. WR Derrick Mason has been Flacco’s most reliable target thus far in moving the chains (4 receptions, 7.8 yards on 3rd down). Just like in 2000, the Ravens’ defense is suffocating their opponents. They are 2nd in preventing 3rd-down conversions, first against big plays, first in producing three and outs, and first in total defense. The list of “firsts” actually goes on and on. This is a Pittsburgh offense that needs the extra day of preparation just to heal up a bit. QB Ben Roethlisberger has suffered from both shoulder and hand issues, while RB Willie Parker is out with a knee injury. Such scenarios can sometimes play big for young players coming into their first “prime time” opportunity. Rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall has seen little action thus far and will be faced with a huge task of carrying the bulk of the load against this Raven defense (#3 vs the rush), given Willie Parker’s knee injury. KEY #2 is to not let Mendenhall (5’10″ 245 lbs & 4.45 40yd) get on a “fresh legs” roll. The Ravens need to pick up where they left off against Cincinnati and Cleveland, holding both under 75 yards net rushing. Baltimore will want to force the young back to bounce outside, where surprisingly he is a bit more comfortable in the open field. NT Justin Bannon (filling in for starter Gregg Kelly (knee)) has been a solid anchor in the 3-4 scheme and his matchup versus PIT OC Justin Hartwig will be pivotal in stopping Mendenhall between the tackles. The Ravens have too much speed to the perimeter and will “swarm” the life out of a running game if given the chance. Pittsburgh would be better suited attacking with their physical RB at the heart (or slightly to the left) of the Baltimore defense.The Steelers find themselves without their leading rusher (Parker) and more importantly with a banged up QB (Roethlisberger). The Ravens have done a great job this season bringing heat and forcing the quick throw. Opponents have struggled with converting 3rd downs and the Ravens lead the League in forcing three and outs. Roethlisberger was sacked eight times by the Eagles defense and will once again be forced to get the ball out in a hurry.
KEY #3 will be the ability of WR’s Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes to create yards after the catch. Their routes will be short and measured (neither has a reception over the 10 yard mark at the catch) so the success of the passing game will hinge on their ability to break free from the Ravens secondary (tackles) and pick up some extra on their own. Both are currently averaging under 4 yards. The Ravens have historically proven to be good tacklers in the open field, but they will be without starting SS Dawan Landry who suffered a neck injury versus Cleveland, and DC Samari Rolle is nursing a sore shoulder and will miss the game.Pittsburgh faces one of the more difficult tandems of “runners after contact” in Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee. McClain’s numbers don’t jump out as one of the leading RB’s in the League, but he finds a lot of hidden yards in his ability to break tackles and get the extra after first contact. McClain is huge by RB standards (260 lbs) and will be called upon to “move the marker” frequently. McGahee is so competitive and determined. His center of gravity and leg drive on contact allow him to move a defender or break through an arm tackle for the needed extra. (Both were limited in practice this week; McClain (back) and McGahee (eye)).
KEY #4 will be the ability of the Ravens backs to keep the chains moving in the face of the initial punch of the Steelers defenders. They are holding opponents to under 3.5 per attempt and under 3.0 yards rushing on first downs. To keep the offense (and Flacco) on schedule, the Ravens running game must find a way to maintain a 4.0+ average and break a few big plays against the “Steel Curtain,” and to do this they will have to create some yards on their own. It’s going to get physical inside.My 5th KEY is going to be the punting and coverage of the Baltimore special teams. Sam Koch has a booming leg (almost 4.5-second hang time) and his gross average stands at 48.4 yards per punt. He tends to out kick his coverage some and his leg strength hampers his ability to drop the ball inside the 20. In a game where the two defenses look to take control, any single mistake that might create a short field for the opponent (fumble, interception, big return) could determine the final outcome. Koch’s ability to flip the field will help the Ravens on the road should the offense bog down on their own end. The Steelers have yet to show any ability to regain yards with the punt return (last in the League).
1. Brandon Marshall, Broncos.
2. Terrell Owens, Cowboys.
3. Steve Smith, Panthers.
4. Santana Moss, Redskins.
5. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals.
6. Chris Chambers, Chargers.
7. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals.
8. Andre Johnson, Texans.
9. Greg Jennings, Packers.
10. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals.
11. Braylon Edwards, Browns.
12. Lee Evans, Bills.
13. Roddy White, Falcons.
14. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs.
15. Santonio Holmes, Steelers.
16. Eddie Royal, Broncos. (Check injury reports.)
17. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets.
18. Torry Holt, Rams.
19. DeSean Jackson, Eagles.
20. Bernard Berrian, Vikings.
21. Hines Ward, Steelers.
22. Chad Johnson, Bengals.
23. Donald Driver, Packers.
24. Justin Gage, Titans.
25. Laveranues Coles, Jets.
26. Muhsin Muhammad, Panthers.
27. Brandon Lloyd, Bears. (Check injury reports.)
28. Brandon Stokley, Broncos.
29. Antonio Bryant, Buccanners.
30. Derrick Mason, Ravens.
31. David Patten, Saints.
32. Vincent Jackson, Chargers.
33. Antwaan Randle El, Redskins.
34. Kevin Walker, Texans.
35. Jerry Porter, Jaguars.
36. Patrick Crayton, Jaguars.
37. Bryant Johnson, 49ers.
38. Devery Henderson, Saints.
39. Michael Clayton, Bucs.
40. Reggie Brown, Eagles.
For our weekly Friday submission to SportingNews.com, we take a look at whether the decision in Detroit to fire Matt Millen will actually help the situation.
We don’t think it will.
For all the reasons, click here.
[Editor’s note: Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist looks at one of the more compelling games of the weekend — a clash between the two teams that used to rule the NFC East. This year, the Redskins have rebounded from a poor Week One showing, and the Cowboys look every bit as good as everyone expected them to be.]
This is the continuation of one of the most storied rivalries in professional football. My memories go back to Staubach and Hayes, Kilmer and Brown, “Whistlin’ Ray vs Chief Zee”. These two seemed to always be battling it out for the right to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl; year after year, decade after decade. Now, in what has to be the most competitive division in pro football, the two meet again in a critical early match up to keep pace in the fast-moving NFC East.
Dallas has taken their preseason mantra of “NFC favorite” and established almost a bully-like presence over the first three weeks of the season. They soundly beat the Browns, stayed in stride with the Eagles and went into Green Bay to press the pause button on “Rogers-mania.” They’ve done it behind a balanced offense ranked 1st overall – 3rd in passing and 9th in rushing. Marion Barber III has comfortably taken over the role as the primary back in the Cowboy running game. A s teams lock down on T.O., TE Jason Witten has emerged as the 3rd leading receiver in the League. And QB Tony Romo is passing at 67.4% clip, equating to a 103.2 rating. The Cowboys are loaded with weapons.
KEY #1 to this game will be getting off to a quick jump on the Redskins defense. Washington has been a bit stingy with opponents in the first and fourth quarters, allowing a total of 10 points in 3 games. The Cowboys have relied upon their big-play ability (1st in NFL) to pile up early leads (3rd in points scored) and clamp down with their defense in the second half. The Redskins have proven to be somewhat slower out of the box, depending on a second-half push to secure both wins. T.O. is due for a break out performance. In Week 11 of last season, Owens scorched the Redskins for 8 receptions, 173 yards and 4 TD’s. Dallas won 28-23. Look for FS Laron Landry to play a major factor in trying to squeeze the deep seams where Dallas likes to employ
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