This could very well be a preview of the AFC Championship as Pittsburgh visits an old AFC Central rival in the Tennessee Titans/Houston Oilers. This game looks a lot like one from last week when the Steelers scored a late (somewhat controversial) TD to overcome the Baltimore Ravens. Both clubs have ridden the backs of their defenses with the Steelers finding different ways to generate the opportunistic “big plays” on offense and Tennessee using a one-two punch in the running game behind rookie Chris Johnson and LenDale White.With the Conference tightening up a bit after the Titans’ loss to the team that now resides in Houston and the Steelers pulling out a thriller, this Week 16 matchup will determine first seed in the AFC come playoff time.Back in Week 5 the Ravens lost to Tennessee after leading for most of the game. In building a lead, Baltimore shut down the ground game of Tennessee, allowing only 47 yards on 22 carries and a 2.1 avg.The game was thrust into the hands of the veteran QB Kerry Collins and the numbers weren’t all that impressive; 17 of 32 for 163 yards, one TD and 2 picks. Against the #2 defensive team in the NFL vs. the run Collins can expect to be challenged again. Though Pittsburgh bent a bit more than usual as the Ravens were able to break the 100 yard mark on the ground (it came at 3.6 per carry and with a long of only 10 yards), KEY #1 will have to be the ability of Collins and his receivers to produce via the air. Tennessee is 21st in the NFL with 50.3% of passes gaining 4+ on 1st down. Despite an outstanding ability to protect their QB (only 8 sacks on the season), Collins is struggling in the face of blitz (30th with 56.25 rating) and isn’t in the top half of the League in converting 3rd downs medium (4 to 6) or long (>6) to go. This is the number one defense against the pass and they just don’t give up many big plays through the air. Tennessee will attempt to set the tempo on the ground early in the series, but the Steelers allow only 32.9% (2nd) of rushes to go for 4+ on 1st down. Offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger is going to have to air it out a bit. The Titans will look to force Pittsburgh into a similar situation. The Steelers have struggled all year with consistency in the ground game and their offense has relied heavily on Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington to bail them out time after time. Tennessee has the secondary to match up well against this group and has generated 18 picks over the course of ’08. KEY #2 will be the Titans ability to force Big Ben to the air and create the turnover. The Steeler receivers have had a high number of drops on the year (26th at 9.4 per game) and Roethlisberger might feel the pressure and frustration of not being able to move the ball on the ground. The blanket ability of the Titans secondary could very well lead Roethlisberger into forcing the ball downfield and Cortland Finnegan, Michael Griffin, Nick Harper and Chris Hope would like nothing more than to practice their ball skills. The Steelers will look to stop the run first and shore up some of the cracks that formed off Le’Ron McClain’s 87 yards last week. Pittsburgh would probably be more than happy to face down the Tennessee passing attack that has relied heavily on the production of TE Bo Scaife (53 receptions for 528 yards). Scaife doesn’t present a match up problem for the Steeler defense like he has with other opponents. It will be up to the WR’s (as stated in KEY #1) to step up and make plays. The Steelers will more than likely work their normal pressure and hope that the Titan O-Line gets crossed up at times (probably not). That said, KEY #3 will be the ability to force the passing game to the outlets and swarm tackle on Scaife or Johnson. The speed on the Steeler defense just doesn’t allow for a lot of extra yards after the catch (ranked 5th) and Pittsburgh will work on sure passing downs to keep the routes in front of coverage and then rally to the ball. Tennessee is only 22nd in converting 3rd & medium (4 to 6) situations and RB Chris Johnson is averaging just over 6 yards per catch. The Titans as a team rank at or near average in yards per catch with short routes (left (16th), middle (19th), and right (16th)). Like Pittsburgh, Tennessee shows very few weaknesses on defense. The Steelers will have their work cut out for themselves and will need to protect Roethlisberger from adding to the Titans’ 38 sacks on the season. Tennessee is not afraid to bring the extra man either and have held opposing QB’s under blitz pressure to a 45.12 rating (2nd). KEY #4 will be the ability of the Steeler offensive line to buy their QB time in the pocket. Roethlisberger is not the fleetest of foot already and his lack of mobility could prove to be target practice for the Titans. DT Albert Haynesworth (injured) has provided the majority of the pressure from inside but I see DE’s David Ball, Jacob Ford and Jevon Kearse as primary factors this week. In their three losses the Steelers surrendered 9, 5 and 2 sacks. Close games against San Diego, Dallas and Baltimore have registered 4, 5 & 3 respectively. The Steelers continue to struggle early in the series and then come up with a play to convert in 3rd & long situations. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz will bring the heat where Roethlisberger is passing at only a 77.83 rating (24th) against the blitz. KEY #5 could very well be the return ability of the Titans’ Chris Carr. Carr is averaging 27.4 per return and will be headed into the teeth of a Pittsburgh cover unit that surrenders just 19.4 per (1st in the NFL).
TED SUNDQUIST’S WEEK SIXTEEN SCOUTING REPORTS: STEELERS AT TITANS
Published December 19, 2008 06:10 AM