[Editor’s note: Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist looks at Sunday’s game between the Steelers and the Ravens.] Week 15 brings to the AFC North what Week 14 brought to the NFC South with Tampa Bay vs. Carolina -- the game of the year in the division. Pittsburgh travels to Baltimore in a divisional showdown that could very well knot up the top or put some distance between the current standing. The Steelers and the Ravens have arguably two of the best defenses in professional football and this has the makings of a battle royale. The first meeting wasn’t decided through 60 minutes of play and took an additional 6 minutes to decide on a Jeff Reed 46 yard field goal. It was a “throwback” night in Pittsburgh and there was plenty of old time hitting to be had as both teams lost a running back, the Steelers for the season in rookie Rashard Mendenhall. Now the only thing that separates the two is this single game and the Ravens have an excellent opportunity to make up the distance. A week ago we discussed the makeup of the Steeler offense and where they ranked in numerous statistical categories (mostly towards the bottom). Their defense has been outstanding and they just find a way to make plays when they have to, but many of the pillars of a successful offense have been lagging or somewhat average in ’08. Baltimore has been in a much similar situation breaking in a rookie QB. Their defense has suffocated opponents and created opportunities for the offense. The difference now is that Joe Flacco has an additional nine games in his resume and will be in front of the hometown faithful. Pittsburgh’s 3-4 defense brings the pressure like none other in the League, tied for first with 45 sacks. Regardless of the updated play time of the rookie Raven QB, the Steelers will be focused on constant pressure to disrupt the rhythm of the Baltimore offense and force the errant throw. Seven of Flacco’s ten interceptions on the season have come in losing efforts (one returned for a score). Ten of his twenty-three sacks were in 3 of 4 losses and in Game 1 vs. the Steelers he was sacked, fumbled and the return went for a score. KEY #1 must be to manage the pressure from Pittsburgh. It’s next to impossible to shut it down, but the Ravens must find a way not to knuckle under to the rush and create the big play turnover. To do that they’ll have to handle OLB’s James Harrison (knee) & Lamar Woodley. Harrison had a field day in Game 1 and has 15.0 sacks for the season (3rd). Baltimore will look to leave extra protection in the backfield in support of Flacco who relies on the RB’s as his outlet. Veteran OT Willie Anderson and the young Jared Gaither (shoulder) will have their work cut out for themselves. The secondary of the Ravens couldn’t get much better than how they’ve played in ’08. Baltimore leads the League in overall opponent passer rating at 58.6, rank 2nd in net passing yards allowed and they’re 1st in passing defense on 1st down (53.5 rating). Ed Reed (thigh), Jim Leonard (illness), Samari Rolle and Fabian Washington have 10 interceptions and 3 scores combined (5 & 3 from Reed alone). KEY #2 will be blanketing the trio of Hynes Ward, Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington. In Game 1 the Steeler wideouts contributed seven receptions for 141 yards and a score. Pittsburgh’s rushing attack hasn’t produced as in the past with the number of injuries that the RB’s have faced this season and QB Ben Roethlisberger will have to go to the air with some consistency to have any chance against this defense. If the Ravens can control the Steeler passing attack, even forcing a turnover or two, it could very well cripple the Pittsburgh game plan, since Baltimore yields an average of 77 yards per game on the ground. The Steelers managed only 69 yards rushing and a 2.5 yard avg per carry in Game 1. I don’t see that trend changing much against Baltimore in Game 2. With emphasis on KEY #2 for the Ravens, look for TE Heath Miller to play a significant role in the passing game and become a frequent target on the night (KEY #3). Miller presents a mismatch of sorts against the Ravens’ OLB’s in coverage. Miller averages 11.4 yards per catch and is equally adept at stretching the seam (from time to time) as he is separating to the flats. He’s also a favorite of Roethlisberger’s in the red zone and Pittsburgh is tied for 6th in successful plays at 50.0%, with a scoring efficiency of 58.5% (9th). The Ravens shut down Miller in Game 1 to season lows of 2 catches for 8 yards. Pittsburgh will need to utilize their TE much better in Game 2. Baltimore has turned to their running game rather effectively in winning 7 of their last 8 games. The Ravens rank 5th in the League at 144 yards per game and go to the ground some 67% of the time on first downs. Despite their propensity of preference to run they’re not one of the top teams in efficiency doing so (18th with rushes of 4+, 23rd with rushes 4+ on 1st). KEY #4 for the Steelers will be to maintain their own dominance in stopping the run on first. I don’t look for Baltimore’s game plan to suddenly thrust Flacco into downfield throws to start the series. The Ravens have done a nice job in managing down/distance for the rookie QB, and that has started with a steady diet of run, turning to the pass on 2nd only if forced to (usually with 7 to 9 yards to go). Baltimore is one of the top teams in the NFL at converting on 3rd and short situations and they will want to stay on schedule. Pittsburgh’s defense is ranked 2nd in preventing such (48.9%). The Steelers have struggled somewhat, defending to the left perimeter and Baltimore likes to get to the outside on runs (top 10 avg) with Willis McGahee. He’s a load in the open field with the foot quickness to force the miss. Field goals will more than likely once again decide this matchup as both defenses are just way too stingy. But don’t look for the PK’s to be the primary key, rather look to both punters in creating the long field. With these two defenses any pin inside the 20 could immediately flip the field in advantage of the punting team. That’s why Baltimore’s Sam Koch (27 pins) & Pittsburgh’s Mitch Berger (16 pins) are KEY #5.
TED SUNDQUIST’S WEEK FIFTEEN SCOUTING REPORT: STEELERS AT RAVENS
Published December 13, 2008 10:43 AM