[Editor’s note:  Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist looks at Sunday night’s critical Bears-Vikings showdown.] 

The NFC North has been like watching three turtles race to the finish line. Back in Week 7 I was evaluating the first Minnesota Chicago matchup and described the lead in the division like a Popsicle on a December afternoon in Minneapolis, or Green Bay, or Chicago: Nobody wants it.Now in Week 13 there remains a log jam at the top and I’m running out of analogies. This game may very well begin to separate the Vikings, Bears and Packers as they head down the stretch. The winner remains at the top of the division and the loser will fall to 6-6. Don’t expect the North to produce a wild-card entry to the playoffs; not with Dallas, Carolina, Atlanta, and Washington all sitting at 7-4 or better.The first meeting between the Vikings and Bears turned out to be more like a Bulls-Timberwolves game. “Big plays” abounded and in the end Chicago walked away with a 48-41 victory and a share of the division lead. My keys to the game were this:

1. Mixing in some of RB Kevin Jones with Matt Forte to take the load off the young back.

2. Slowing down Vikings RB Adrian Peterson.

3. Harnessing some of the emotional energy of former Bears WR Bernard Berrian into production for the Vikings.

4. Putting pressure on Bears QB Kyle Orton.

5. The battle between Vikings P Chris Kluwe and Bears return man Devin Hester.

Some of those points materialized and some didn’t. Forte rushed for only 56 yards on 20 carries and no other Bear recorded a rushing touch. Peterson exploded for 121 yards, 5.5 average and 2 TD’s. Berrian used his return to Soldier Field as motivation towards a 6 reception, 81 yard and 1 TD performance. The Vikings brought the heat on Orton with 2 sacks and 3 hurries, but never generated a big mistake by the Chicago QB who passed at a rating of 114.5 and 2 TD’s. Kluwe kept the ball away from Hester but still contributed to a Chicago score with a muffed snap and subsequent blocked punt returned for a TD. The Bears won by 7.

So what will separate game #2 from game #1? Venue to start with as the Vikings get home field advantage within the Metrodome, but after that not much has really changed (similar to the standings).

Kyle Orton was hurt the following week vs. Detroit, sat out the Tennessee game and has since returned with average results. Matt Forte has added two 100+ rushing games to his rookie resume and broke off a 47 yard score last week vs the Rams. The Bears defense is shutting down the run but has faced heavy criticism (inside & out of Halas Hall) for their porous pass defense. Chicago is 2-2 since the first meeting.

For Minnesota it’s been somewhat of a roller coaster ride as well. Frerotte has two 100+ QB rating games, with another two in the 50’s. Peterson exploded for 139 & 192 yards the next two weeks, then was held below 90 yards on back to back road games. Berrian hit Houston for 104 yards on only 2 receptions, followed by games of 0, 3 for 46 and 1 for 6. Kluwe has a monster 47. 3 average, but nets only 33.9 per punt. Oh yeah, Minnesota went 3-1.

The Viking’s defense currently sits 2nd in the League vs. the rush, allowing 70.4 per game. They’re 2nd as well with only 33.7% of opponent running plays gaining 4+ yards. Forte will once again be stiffly challenged by the Minnesota defense. This puts the onus on Orton and his passing attack, especially on 1st down. The Bears have actually thrived throwing the ball on 1st (57.8%) and the Vikings have shown vulnerability 55.6% of the time (4+ yards).

KEY #1 will be to keep 3rd downs manageable for Chicago by passing with some efficiency on 1st. Forte is the Bears’ leading receiver at this point and that’s OK. Get the ball in his hands and on the perimeter where the Vikings have been a bit suspect to the flats. The Bears are a between-the-tackles run team and there won’t be any room against this Vikings defense that holds opponents to just around 3 yards per carry inside.

KEY #2 will once again be controlling Adrian Peterson. Frerotte threw for 25 of 40 & 2 TD’s in the first game. It was the turnovers (4 picks) that ultimately did him in. The Bears are tough on the run as well and rally to the outside where Peterson likes to get into open space and use his speed. This is a collision waiting to happen but I feel one that Minnesota is willing to take a chance on.

Minnesota will study the tape of the last few weeks and see the same things that Tennessee, Green Bay and St. Louis saw; vulnerability in Chicago’s Cover 2 (especially up the seams & just over LB level). The Bears are sure to stack the LOS and force Frerotte to the air.

KEY #3 will be the ability of WR’s Bobby Wade and Bernard Berrian to find the gaps & settle in. The two combined for 2 receptions & 15 yards vs Jacksonville this past week. The Bears held the Rams to 193 net yards passing but didn’t face the threat of any ground game with Steven Jackson out. Peterson will have Chicago’s attention and this should open up some opportunities for Frerotte and his wideouts.

The Vikings have 14 sacks over 4 games since last meeting the Bears. KEY #4 will again be to generate some pass rush on Orton and work to force mistakes into turnovers. Under the dome the noise will be deafening and disruptive to the Bears at the LOS. Look for Jared Allen and the rest of the Minnesota front to work the snap count and get a jump on the Bears O-Line. The Vikings have only 8 picks on the season but they’ve come in multiples when forced. If the Bears struggle to establish KEY #1, Minnesota may very well have opportunities to add to that number.

KEY #5 is Minnesota PK Ryan Longwell’s 50+ range with FG’s. Longwell is 4 for 4 on the season with the leg strength to go beyond the 40 yard line with relative ease. Chicago’s Robbie Gould has similar accuracy under 50 yards, but has yet to attempt one beyond that distance. In another close game coming down to the wire Longwell could be the key for Minnesota.