[Editor’s note: Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist looks at Sunday’s showdown between teams with equal records now, but who were 15 games apart in the standings at the end of last season.] “A Tale of Two Cities” best describes the fortunes of Boston and Miami in 2007. The Patriots went on a historical 16-0 run to a last-minute Super Bowl disappointment, while Miami was just plain disappointing. The Dolphins finished 1-15 and were rewarded with a total “house cleaning” and the first pick in the annual college draft.Who could have thought that just under a year later these two clubs would be playing to stay in the AFC playoff picture at 6-4? Miami has turned a rebuilding 2-4 start into a second place standing (off a 4 game run) and New England has continued to withstand the pressures of losing a franchise QB in Week One. This proves to be a more critical contest for the Patriots, having already lost to Miami 38-13 in Week 3. Should it come down to a tie break to decide a wildcard birth, the Dolphins could parlay their two wins into more “January play”. At first glance there’s nothing overly “mind blowing” about this Miami football team. Midway through October, they had twice as many losses as wins. They turned to a “gimmicky” college formation to take advantage of their personnel (and perhaps hide some weaknesses) and most everyone in South Florida was content with the idea that this was going to take some time. Then the defense tightened up, a second receiver emerged (Greg Camarillo) and the team began to respond to the energy of its new head coach Tony Sparano. Wins over good Buffalo & Denver teams preceded victories over Seattle & Oakland. You could call this “uncharted” territory, playing a meaningful game at Week 12 of the season. The difference in this team as compared to 2007’s is the poise & composure they’ve shown week after week. Gone are the needless and silly penalties that thwarted drives or negated “big plays”. Also missing are the turnovers that created short field opportunities for opponents to capitalize on. Miami is tied for 3rd in the least number of infractions and sits tied at 4th with a turnover net of +7. Their offense has the fewest “giveaways” of any team in the League at 8 (5 int’s & 3 fum’s). KEY #1 will be to continue with this disciplined level of play. Against a veteran team like the Patriot’s you can’t afford to beat yourself. With New England on the road, they’ll be looking for every advantage they can muster to break the confidence of the Dolphins’ current roll. In losing 2 of their last 3, the Patriots committed only three turnovers and will be looking to force QB Chad Pennington into some misguided reads and mistakes. Last week’s game vs the Jets was a physical battle and it will be interesting to see just how much the Pats can bring to the table (hits & pressure) in an attempt to “fluster” the Dolphins. KEY #2 for Miami will be controlling the improved running attack of New England. After striking Denver for 257 yards in a blowout win, the Patriots have averaged 126.75 yards over the past 4 games. They’re 6th in runs of 4+ and sit 3rd in rushing efficiency on 1st down. The Patriots have produced 34 runs of 10+ yards and generated this into a League leading 25 drives of 10+ plays. Miami’s defense has proved to be a bit stingy vs the ground attack. The Dolphin “D” yields only 35.9% of runs 4+ yards and are ranked 8th limiting such on 1st down. Opponents run into multiple situations of 2nd/3rd & long and find trouble converting. Numerous injuries have decimated the Patriots backfield, but look for the load to be placed on BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Though more productive to the left, New England might be served well to attack to their right with some consistency where the Dolphins tend to bend a bit more than usual. The Patriots have been one of the few teams that have passed on first down more than they’ve run. This trend may need to continue a bit longer with Miami giving opposing QB’s a 94.4 rating on 1st down and struggling to rally to the short routes outside. KEY #3 won’t necessarily be the “big play” strikes of Randy Moss or the crossing routes of Wes Welker, but rather look for the short range production of 3rd down RB Kevin Faulk and TE Ben Watson in keeping the chains moving. The Dolphins struggle some in preventing 6 yard & under conversions, but the Patriots are one of the League’s worst in doing just that. Faulk and Watson will present two reliable options for QB Matt Cassel against a defense set on blanketing the deep routes and preventing “big plays” (primarily because they’ve given up a few). Past opponents have been able to create some mismatches in coverage with their RB’s and TE’s. The Patriots defense has struggled all season long with their efficiency in the red zone. They surrender a higher degree of successful plays (50.6%), are ranked 31st in 3rd down conversions, 29th in TD efficiency, 30th in yards per play and have yet to record a turnover. Miami was 4 for 4 in their previous meeting. KEY #4 is a bit obvious, but nevertheless must be accomplished – limit the Dolphins’ red zone success. To do this they’ll have to limit the running attack of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Aside from 1st & 10, Miami will give you steady diet of their RB tandem as they close in on the goal line. This boils down to the O-line of the Dolphins and their ability to establish and push the LOS on the front 7 of the Patriots. Put the onus on NT Vince Wilfork and his battle with the inside 3 of Miami (OG’s Justin Smiley & Ike Ndkuwe, OC Samson Satele). In the 3-4 it starts with the point of attack strength and the lateral leverage of the NT. Wilfork will need to hold his own along the LOS to allow for his LB’s to fill & finish. If Satele and his OG’s can “reach & scoop” the Patriots’ D-Line, look for some “big plays” in the red zone via the ground game. Just what New England needs to prevent. KEY #5 will be the ability of New England to exploit the shaky punt cover of Miami. The Dolphins have surrendered two scores via the return and P Brandon Fields in netting less than 35 yards per attempt. Their coverage unit is ranked 31st at 16.4 yards per return. The Patriots average almost 12 yards per return and have some 18 drives that have started on their opponent’s side of the 50. A stout defensive stand deep in the Miami end could lead to a short field scenario and some easy points for the Pats.
TED SUNDQUIST’S WEEK TWELVE SCOUTING REPORTS: PATRIOTS AT DOLPHINS
Published November 21, 2008 12:58 PM