[Editor’s note:  Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist breaks down Week Eleven’s critical matchup in the NFC North.]

“Frozen”. That’s where the NFC North finds itself after eleven weeks of play. Green Bay, Minnesota and Chicago all sit at 5-5 after the Bears’ trip to Lambeau Field on Sunday. Tampa Bay was able to hold Adrian Peterson in check and the Vikings slid down to greet the Packers & Chicago as well. Pundits had called for a potential Packer blowout, while I felt that we’d see a more traditional divisional rivalry between the two; tough, hard nosed & close in the final score. Chalk one up for the pundits.

How on earth did this get so out of hand with Chicago playing for sole possession of first place? The Bears had built their defense on defending the run, but they have struggled to shut down the pass (especially in the “big play” categories). Aaron Rodgers and his receivers were carrying the Green Bay offense through the air. The Packers were averaging over 220 yards per game and Rodgers had a QB rating of 92.4 (6th) into the contest. Green Bay was creating some “big plays” through the air (25 for 20+) and converting 3rd down situations as a result (41%). What was hurting their offense was a lack of consistency in the run game, primarily on 1st down.

KEY #1 for the Packers was to find that efficiency on 1st to take the pressure off Rodgers downfield and slow down the Bears on the backside of a series (the rush). Green Bay was able to do just that and it started with their run game. Ryan Grant exploded for 145 yards on 25 carries, averaging 5.8 per. Brandon Jackson added another 50 yards of his own. The Packers rushed 17 times for 75 yards (4.4 avg) and attacked the perimeter eight times on first down.

Rodgers completed 11 of 13 for 121 yards (9.3 avg). On thirty 1st downs the Packers averaged 6.53 yards per play. Green Bay found itself faced with 3rd & long (> 6 yds) three times; punting once, converting once and turning over once with an interception. In all they converted 50% of 3rd down opportunities on the day (7 of 14).

Kyle Orton did indeed return to the lineup with a heavily braced ankle. I’d felt with the potential of a struggling Rex Grossman at the start or a less than mobile Orton, the Bears would look to establish a ground game (KEY #2) in the face of a Packer defense that was shredded the week before by the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson. Chicago surprisingly struggled to do so. Rookie RB Matt Forte was held to 64 yards on 16 carries and the Bears rushed for only 83 yards as a team. Six carries on first down would net only 23 yards.

Eight runs to the left would gain only 28 yards and a mere 3.5 yards per carry (one full yard under their normal average). The Packers defense held firm against their usual weakness along the defensive front. LB’s A.J. Hawk & Brandon Chillar would lead all tacklers with 7 each. Chillar recorded a TFL & QB hurry as well. Chicago was forced to the air as the game got away. Orton & Grossman combined for 5 of 13 on first down (with two of those completions coming under 2 minutes to go). This deficiency on 1st would lead to a 1 of 7 conversion rate on 3rd & long for the Bears, 3 of 12 total.

With the emphasis of the Packers in stopping Forte and the Chicago O-Line via the run, KEY #3 was to be the production of the “outlet” routes of TE’s Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark. The two had combined for a significant portion of Chicago’s passing production over the course of the season.

Green Bay’s secondary can be suffocating down the field and the Bears would need a short passing game to alleviate the stress of the focus on their run. The Packers were willing to give up the short pass to the RB’s & TE’s to protect any shots at the “big play”. In all Chicago would find this combination of routes (TE/RB) 13 times. Olsen and Clark had 5 receptions for 49 yards.

The WR’s contributed only 4 for 50, one a Rashied Davis catch for 36. In the end no particular position in the Bears’ offense really threatened the Packer secondary. Olsen’s 18 yard catch would turn a first down in Chicago’s initial drive, only to stall 4 plays and 1 yard later with a punt.

KEY #4 was for Chicago to control the “big play” production of Rodgers and his receivers; Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and TE Donald Lee. Jennings was averaging 18.6 per catch. Driver had presented a similar down field threat for the Packers. With Ryan Grant taking over on the ground, Green Bay really didn’t need their long passing game as much as initially thought.

Rodgers went deep five times, completing two for 19 & 21 yards. He was intercepted once.

Jennings did haul in 5 receptions for 64 yards, with a long of 29. Driver added 4 catches for 60 yards, a long of 21. Lee took the burden of the short game and led all Packers with 6 catches for 33 yards, one for a TD. In all nine Packers would register a reception and Green Bay would balance a 200 yard rushing day with another 227 through the air.

KEY #5 hinged on a close game and that never materialized. Green Bay’s Will Blackmon exploded for a TD last week against the Vikings and Chicago’s Devin Hester was an ever-present threat (regardless of the opponent). This game the punters and their coverage units would win out. Hester had one return for 7 yards, fair catching another. Blackmon added 3 yards on a single return and fair caught two. Neither played a role in the eventual outcome of a lopsided Packer victory.