[Editor’s note:  Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist provides us with three scouting reports each week.  This week, he takes a look at the matchup between the Colts and Ravens.] 

Two second-place teams (it’s strange saying that about INDY) meet at Lucas Oil Stadium this weekend to try and keep pace in the AFC race for the playoffs.  Indianapolis is coming off what is arguably one of the strangest fourth-quarter comebacks in League history.  The Colts put up 21 points in a little over 2 minutes to escape Houston with a much-needed divisional win.  Baltimore snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, giving up ten fourth-quarter points to the undefeated Tennessee Titans in a close 13-10 loss.

The Ravens are a much better team than their 2-2 record might indicate, while Indianapolis. . . well the jury is still out.  But again, “you are what you are”.  The Baltimore offense is all about managing the play of their rookie QB Joe Flacco.  Each and every game is just one more addition to the overall education process for the young QB.  Unfortunately, it’s on- the-job training, but Flacco has surprised many with his resilience to date.  Two weeks ago the former Delaware star surely was reminded that he no longer plays in the “Colonial Conference” as the Steelers sacked him five times. Last week Tennessee picked him twice, with a third interception overturned on review.

But Flacco appears unshaken headed into Week 6.  Despite being at the bottom of just about every statistical passing category, the Ravens do know how to sustain a drive.  They have 8 drives of ten or more plays, 8 over 5 minutes (ball control) and are ranked 1st in the League in time of possession. Flacco is turning the 1st on 3rd down situations, it’s just the Ravens aren’t creating ANY big plays.  The effort to keep Flacco reined in has limited their ability to create anything of the quick-strike nature. KEY #1 will be finding some big plays via the pass. 

Indianapolis isn’t likely to race up and down the field against the Baltimore defense, but the Ravens will need to put their own share of points up against a more-than-capable Colt offense. Derrick Mason is the team’s leading receiver and has the long reception on the season (35 yards).  The next highest average per catch to Mason is TE Todd Heap (11.1).  The Indy defense has been suspect to the pass on first down, yet Baltimore looks to run some 70% of the time at the start of a series.  They need to open it up a bit, catch the secondary playing the run and hit Mason or WR Mark Clayton off play-action deep.It’s hard to find a key to the game for a defensive team as dominant as Baltimore, but against Peyton Manning and the Colts they’ll have to exercise extreme patience, especially on the road. 

Manning is usually the master at reading a defense and getting his team in the right play, but his confidence appears shaken with the slow recovery of his knee injury and his efficiency in the face of the blitz has been un-Peyton-like.  The Ravens will look to mix and disguise their rush on the less than mobile Manning.  Indy is good for giving about two sacks per game, and pressure has forced Manning into some uncharacteristic interceptions early this season. KEY #2 will be the ability of the ILB’s Bart Scott and Ray Lewis to generate some pressure via the blitz against the Colts interior O-line that is a bit beat up.  Neither is a big sack producer (that usually coming from OLB Terrell Suggs), but Scott can bring the heat and force the hurry when given the opportunity. 

Any plan to rattle Manning might be well conceived by a Raven defense rated 5th vs. the pass when blitzing. Indianapolis has their own work cut out for them.  Even though playing in their new stadium, the Colts are going up against a defense that appears to be in playoff form already.  They swarm the running game and smother the pass with as talented a group as there is in the NFL.  This could be a big game for TE Dallas Clark.  Focus will certainly be on shutting down leading WR Reggie Wayne.  Anthony Gonzalez is more than capable of hurting you in this system, but his production has dropped off decidedly since Week 2 (as teams game-plan down on him) and Marvin Harrison seems out of sorts the first quarter of the season (health and off field issues).  Clark has the skills of a WR from the TE position and can create some interesting mismatches split out, off motion, or even from strength. 

Look for the productive TE to be KEY #3 for a Colt offense that will probably have to check down to second and third receivers throughout the night.  Clark has big-play ability and has been a favorite red zone target of Manning’s in the past.  He has yet to score in ’08. The Colts will have to stop the running game of the Ravens, period.  We discussed the struggles of young Flacco beating teams downfield with the pass and the Ravens have turned to their ground game to control the clock and move the chains.  The Colts are dead last (the very bottom) at stopping the run with some 188 yards per game surrendered.  Opponents run on 1st down, they run on 2nd down, and in the case of the Ravens, could very well run on 3rd down as well. No one has been immune to opponent attacks along the Colts front four, teams are gaining almost 5 yards per carry through every hole. 

The Ravens tend to get left-handed when running the football and this aligns against DE Dwight Freeney, DT Eric Foster, and WLB Fred Keiaho. KEY #4 is the trio’s ability to take on OG Ben Grubbs, and OT Jared Gaither with some sort of consistency.  With help from TE Todd Heap (strong formation), look for SLB Clint Session in the mix.  If the Colts can’t force Baltimore out of the run early, the big plays may come later as the defensive front wears down and the secondary is forced to fill at the LOS. This could give Flacco and the receivers some late opportunities for those down field shots discussed in KEY #1.

KEY #5 is the place-kicking of Matt Stover.  He has yet to hit beyond 40 yards (0-3).  With an offense that struggles to score points with any consistency against an offense that is accustomed at doing just that, missed opportunities could prove fatal.  Stover must create some scores outside the red zone for his offense.  A closed roof on Lucas Oil Stadium might help the cause.