ProFootballTalk.com

[Editor’s note:  Here’s the final Week Five scouting report from former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist.] 

Pittsburgh vs Jacksonville; it conjures up old thoughts of the AFC Central, when the Steelers and Jags would pound it out twice a year in the midst of the Bengals, Browns, Ravens, and Oilers. Bettis vs Brunell, McCardell vs Thigpen. Tough and physical defense, big play and opportunistic offense. The 2008 version of this rivalry has many of the same characteristics and yet brings a bit of its own flare with Pittsburgh all but limping into the game with injuries galore and Jacksonville continuing to crawl out from under a 0-2 rock to start the season.Pittsburgh, a team built around a solid running game, steady QB play and a relentless defense has to be wondering “What next?”. Willie Parker started the season at RB, then went down with a knee injury. He was replaced by rookie Rashard Mendenhall, who subsequently was lost for the season with a shoulder fracture vs Baltimore. He was replaced by FB Carey Davis, who left the game with an ankle injury. Backup LB Andre Frazier was seriously injured on the opening kickoff and starting RG Kendall Simmons was lost for the year after he tore his Achilles. QB Ben Roethlisberger has been beat up for most of the first quarter of the season and has nursed a shoulder injury all week that has kept him out of practice.

Their offensive numbers are a direct reflection of the status of their training room. Twenty-ninth in total offense, 28^th in passing, 21^st in rushing, 27^th in 3^rd down conversions, 31^st in sacks allowed and dead last in successful plays.

KEY #1 will be finding some sort of offensive continuity. I’m going to go as broad based as possible. A: Establish a run game and move the chains with the short pass, and take the pressure off a fragile QB that appears one hit away from his own season-ender. Or, B: Find a way to get the playmakers involved a bit in Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, and Heath Miller. This is as fine a group as there is in the League, but when your QB has been sacked 12 times in 2 games it makes it a bit difficult getting them the ball. As tough as the Jags have been against the rush, the Steelers should probably go to the air. The Jags have struggled with their own pass rush (27^th in sacks) and their ability to slow opponents on 3^rd down (last). They have been subject to the big play and generally don’t appear in synch with their overall pass defense. With Roethlisberger still in question for Sunday, this could be a tall order. But I’d be more comfortable in attacking a weakness with my healthy playmaking receivers than attacking a strength with 3^rd string and free agent running backs.

On defense, the Steelers bear more of a resemblance to the past. This is still a very talented and physical group, and their play has equated to a #2 overall ranking. Their ability to pressure with their 3-4 front and aggressiveness of their secondary makes it extremely difficult to throw. The Steelers have 15 sacks on the year (2^nd), allow the third least net yards via the air, and QBs are throwing at an alarmingly low rate of 67.8. They force you to go the hard way (no big plays) to the end zone and have given up only 58 points for the season. Couple that with their stinginess versus the run (74 yards per game) and you see why despite their offensive woes, Pittsburgh is still 3-1.

KEY #2 will be shutting down Jacksonville’s newfound passing game. The Jags have pulled themselves up off the mat by throwing for over a 70% clip the past two weeks. Third down conversions are up over 50% and the O-line is giving QB David Garrard time to find his receivers (1 sack). That said, the Jags (on paper) have very little in the way of big-time play makers. WR Matt Jones leads the team in receiving, the next most reliable target being the outlet to RBs Maurice Jones-Drew or Fred Taylor. Look for the Steelers to put the clamps down on Jones and for safety Troy Polamalu to play a big role in shutting down RBs Taylor and Jones-Drew. His free-wheeling, attacking style plays well in defending the flats and attacking the LOS. With very few downfield threats for the Jags, Polamalu should have the green light to key on Jacksonville’s RB tandem.

Jacksonville is a very rhythm-oriented offense. They look to stay on schedule with solid movement on 1^st and 2^nd down. To do this they utilize the run and short passing game to keep themselves in reasonable 3^rd down situations. As stated above, they lack downfield playmakers to create yardage in longer situations. Their conversion rate is top 10 in the League, but they struggle mightily when faced with 6-10 yards or longer. The Jags will have to keep the ball moving on the ground to keep the inherent Steelers pressure off Garrard. The Jags center their attack off their interior three and KEY #3 will be the ability of OC Dennis Norman (filling in for Brad Meester (biceps)) to handle NT Chris Hoke, who is filling in for Casey Hamptn. If Norman can win that battle, Taylor and Jones-Drew may find some cutback lanes inside. But if Hoke is able to press/stuff Norman at the point and force the bounce, the rest of the Steelers defense will swarm to ball carrier as they did last week vs Baltimore (3.1 per carry).

The Jags will more than likely shut down the Steeler running game with the amount of injuries that have disrupted its continuity. If Plan B above is adopted and Pittsburgh does go to the air, Jacksonville will have to get some pressure on “Big Ben” or his sub, Byron Leftwich (KEY #4). The Jags have lagged a bit in pressuring the QB this season and the Steelers front 5 on the O-Line have all done their part in contributing to the 15-sack total. Look for Jag DEs Paul Spicer and Quentin Groves on ROT Willie Colon to be an interesting match up. Spicer is getting up in age, but led Jacksonville in sacks with 7.5 in ’07. The rookie Groves was drafted in the 2^nd round (’08) to bolster the pass rush off the edge. Spicer has yet to record a sack this season, while Groves has tallied one.

KEY #5 will be the punting of Mitch Berger for the Steelers. Berger has good hang time, translating to a 39.2 net off of a 42.4 average. But more significant is his ability to pin opponents inside the 20. Berger has done so 9 times this season. With the Jags looking for ball control and usually going the long way to the end zone, Berger would be a big help to his defense in forcing them to do just that. Jacksonville has only started inside their own 20 three times in ’08. Pittsburgh’s stout run defense and solid three-and-out ability could put the Jags in a hole. Their own punter Adam Podlesh is netting only 35.5. A resulting short field for a struggling offense is just what the doctor ordered.