The Indianapolis Colts are still one of the best teams in the NFL.  But, as of right now, they’re not one of the five best.

The Colts have the feel of a team that is in the early stages of transition.  Coach Tony Dungy might be starting his last year, a fact about which he rarely is asked.  Quarterback Peyton Manning, though healthy for Week One, could be on the doorstep of a Kurt Warner-style decline.  (We said “could be,” not “is.”)

And with so much cap money tied up in so many core players like Manning and Dwight Freeney and Reggie Wayne and Bob Sanders and Marvin Harrison, the Colts continue to gamble that young players making peanuts in comparison will step up and succeed.

So far, they’ve been fortunate.  This year, they need to rely on youth at the center position and again at defensive tackle, especially with 2007 third-rounder Quinn Pitcock opting to quit the sport.

But can the Colts continue to excel with the Jags banging on the door and a team like the Texans possibly poised to try to sneak in?

Indy still has the horses to make it to the playoffs.  This could be the year that a team other than the Colts wins the division, for the first time since 2002.