[Editor’s note:  Former Broncos G.M. Ted Sundquist’s initial three-pack of scouting reports concludes with Monday night’s game between the Packers and the Vikings.  Ted will breakdown this game next week.] 

Probably the only person more ready for the season to begin than the Cheesehead faithful is Green Bay G.M. Ted Thompson.  Thompson and his staff entered the offseason with the understanding that this would be Year One of the post-Favre Packers.  Instead, Favre backed out of his “retirement” and placed Thompson and the team in a difficult position.  That said, both appear to have gotten their wish, as Favre is with a new team and Green Bay continues on with QB Aaron Rodgers.  What better way to see the future than to face division rival Minnesota in Week One?  The Vikings feel they’ve added the necessary pieces to push Green Bay for the NFC North title in 2008.

One thing’s for sure, Brett Favre left Green Bay on top of his game.  The Packers were one of the leading offensive teams in 2007.  Favre was the 6th rated QB in the NFL, his offense was 2nd overall and the Packers were able to strike quickly against just about every opponent they faced.  Green Bay’s mantra was “pass early and often,” and the reliable receiving corps didn’t let them down.  The Packers were 2nd overall in plays of 20+ yards (run/pass), 7th in quick strike drives (4 or less plays) and 2nd in the least number of dropped passes.  That resulted in 435 points. 

Now it’s Rodgers turn.  Taken in the first round of the 2005 draft, Rodgers has personified patience.  He was sharp in two outings last season, one a 34-0 blowout win over these same Vikings at Lambeau Field (though in fairness it was in mop-up duty).  He certainly looked more than capable of guiding this offense in the preseason, passing for 68.5%, over 8 yards per attempt, 3 TD’s and only one pick.  So, KEY #1 will be the ability of explosive WR’s Donald Driver and Greg Jennings to exploit an otherwise weak Minnesota secondary (opponents threw 65% of the time).  The duo combined for 18 receptions and 227 yards, scoring one TD over the course of two meetings in ’07.  The Vikings were one of the worst teams in shutting down both the opponents’ #1 and #2 WR’s last year.    Driver’s sure-handed reliability kept the Packers in the top 10 for third-down conversions, while Jennings presented a big play threat that produced 52 passing plays of 20+ yards in ’07.   I see Green Bay working to the side of Cedric Griffin, who statistically struggled in successfully shutting down the pass last season.  Griffin was targeted 19% of the time, yet had a significantly low success rate of 39% (ranking well outside the range of starting corners). 

If Green Bay hopes to take the early divisional lead they must shut down the explosive running game of the Vikings.  The Packers struggled to corral rookie sensation Adrian Peterson in Week Four, but thoroughly shut him down at home Week Ten, allowing only 45 yards.  KEY #2 will be the play of WLB A.J. Hawk, who is questionable with a chest injury, and SS Atari Bigby, who is probable with an ankle.  Hawk has the speed, quickness and instincts to squeeze the backside and meet Peterson in the hole before he can cutback.  He is a physical, sure tackler, one of the League leaders at LB.  With the lack of a strong passing game, Green Bay will be able to bring Bigby down into the box to assist against the run.  Bigby came into his own as a starter in 2007 and his size and punch at the point are perfect for such a scenario.  Both Hawk and Bigby will be employed in a manner that will allow them to fill at the line of scrimmage unblocked, however they MUST be consistent in their breakdown and wrap up as the last line of defense.  Any missed tackles by these two could lead to big plays on the ground, of which Peterson and the Vikings led the NFL in ’07.  Counter that with the fact that the Packers defense was 2nd in the least number of runs over 10 yards and you get “the unstoppable force versus the immovable object” syndrome.  Something’s gotta give. 

So it’s no secret as to what and who makes the Vikings offense go; the running game of #28.   But with the emphasis of the Packers shutting down the Viking ground attack, QB Tarvaris Jackson must step up to the plate, which is KEY #3.  To say that Jackson has been the focal point of questions concerning the 2008 season would be an understatement.  Jackson must be a game manager more than anything, doing just enough to keep opponents off balance as he hands the ball off to Peterson and company.  There’s nothing wrong with this by any means.  It’s just that in “managing” a game, you can’t turn the ball over as many times as Jackson did in ’07 (15 to be exact).  His preseason performance showed excellent growth in this area, passing for 68.2 % and throwing no interceptions.  With the defense stacked to stop the run, Jackson must find ways through playaction, roll out and bootlegs to get the ball downfield and convert 3rd down via the pass.  If he can do this, Minnesota should improve on their ability to sustain some longer drives (they ranked 29th with drives over 10 plays) and chew up the clock on the road. 

For the Vikings to succeed on defense they must find a way to get to Rodgers.  Minnesota was excellent against the run last season, to a degree because they were so vulnerable to the pass.  As stated earlier, opponents came out with the intent of attacking the Viking defense through the air.  Minnesota was near the bottom in just about every statistical category defending the pass; first-down passes, second-down passes, big play passes, first downs made via pass, net passing yards and total passing.  You get the picture.  What they can do is rush the passer and they did just that with 38 sacks and ranking fourth in the League off the blitz.  Off-season acquisition Jared Allen brings his impressive 15.5 sacks to make up for the loss of Kenechi Udeze, diagnosed with leukemia (my best to him).  Allen joins the emerging young Ray Edwards (5 sacks and 11 hurries) as the two pressure points on Packer OT’s Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher, which is KEY #4.  What I like most about this tandem is their length, coupled with excellent athleticism.  They both play the point strong, but can also maneuver to get to the QB.  Green Bay’s OT’s are two of the best at protecting theirs, but that was Favre in ’07.  His ability to elude pressure is legendary, however Rodgers was sacked 7 times in the preseason alone.  Look for Minnesota to utilize the blitz and do everything they can to free up their speedy DE’s off the edge.  This pressure may confuse and frustrate the young Rodgers, forcing the Packers to run more against the Viking stingy ground defense (1st in the NFL).

KEY #5 in a close game (and I see this being one) could be the strength and accuracy of your placekicker.  Green Bay’s Mason Crosby is one of the emerging young stars at the position.  His leg strength and overall power give him the capability of hitting FG’s from 50+ yards.  These could be “found” points if the offense stalls out before reaching the red zone.  He also is capable creating a long field for Minnesota with his kickoffs and the ability to reach the endzone (14 touchbacks ’07).