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As the various so-called experts and self-styled pundits begin to pick their seats on the Cleveland Browns bandwagon for the coming season, we think it could be a long, long year for the Browns and their other three neighbors in the AFC North.
We could lay out the argument right here, but that would upset the folks that send us checks once per month at SportingNews.com, since this was the topic of an item penned by me and posted by them over the weekend.
The article can be read right here. And you can call me an idiot either in the comments to the article or in the comments to this blurg. Or both.
July 14th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Which team is Favre rumored to play for this morning?
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Rating: 1.4 / 5 with 10 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 10:33 am
Could? Anytime the “experts” have the Brownies on top of the Division, you know we are in for a long year…
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Rating: 3.45 / 5 with 9 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Everybody’s trendy pick, the Brownies, will be exposed by the halfway point of next season. And will continue to be owned by the Steelers.
The Steelers have probably their toughest schedule ever. 10 wins would be a major achievement, 9 not bad. No shame in that at all. Just get in the playoffs baby, and let the rest take care of itself.
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Rating: 2.1 / 5 with 11 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 10:45 am
Are these the same experts that have been predicting the Bengals and Ravens to be the top AFC North teams for the past decade? Eitherway, it’s going to be a long year for all the AFC North teams with schedules that brutal.
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Rating: 3 / 5 with 6 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 10:47 am
I wouldn’t predict a sub-500 division winner for the AFC North, but I don’t expect any of those teams to be any good. The 4 teams seem unlikely to have a winning record against any of the 4 AFC South teams, and they could easily go 0-4 against more than one of them.
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Rating: 1.75 / 5 with 7 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 10:48 am
by the numbers and logistics this analysis makes good sense. But it’s a bit too bird’s eye view.
I’m a admittedly huge Steelers fan and this article doesn’t consider about 8 different things that could change for them, better center, Marvel’s healthy back, Polamulu being healthy, the addition of Mendenhall, Timmons and Woodley starting, a healthy Ryan Clark (in my opinion thats huge), another year under Tomlin’s belt, etc etc etc
My point is I could list a million things that could swing either way and a knowledgable fan of the Ravens, Bengals and Browns could do the same. Its how those details shape up during the season that will decide the outcome for these teams. As we see every year, one of them is going to have opportunities swing their way and the others are going to have some struggles. So to speculate that based on a schedule and numbers the division is going to post 4 .500 and under teams is just silly.
One of them will at least finish 10-6 and my bet (of course) is on the Steelers to do it.
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Rating: 3 / 5 with 11 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 10:51 am
With the schedules these four teams play, you could easily see an 8-8 division winner in the AFC North.
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Rating: 3 / 5 with 7 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 10:54 am
The guy that typed this gem:
The AFC North may not be the best Division in football but its a solid division the Black and Blue Division ala slobber knocker! As for your opinion on ranking the divisions I’ll put it in a different manner! How about Super Bowl Wins by these same divisions within the last decade?
AFC East: 3 Super Bowl Wins
AFC North: 2 Super Bowl Wins
AFC West: 2 Super Bowl Wins
AFC South: 1 Super Bowl Win
NFC East: 1 Super Bowl
NFC South: 1 Super Bowl Win
NFC West: 1 Super Bowl Win
NFC North: 0 Super Bowls
How about ranking Divisions based on success, Championships and not HYPE or BS? To even consider that the winner of the AFC North would end up 8-8 is absurd, maybe your giving to much respect to the opponents(NFC East and AFC South)and not enough to the challengers in this case the AFC North, after all the AFC North has the equal amount of Super Bowl wins as the NFC East and AFC South combined within the last decade.
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Is an idiot. The AFC east’s SB win’s come from one team, does that make them the premier divison in the NFL?
More over, I think the toughest divison in the AFC is the South, followed by the West, then North, then East.
NFC is pretty much just the East and North with a round-robin winner coming from the West and South each year.
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Rating: 2.7 / 5 with 14 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 10:57 am
Not a bad article at all, Florio. However, the only way it holds water is if you automatically rank the AFCN a lesser division as a whole than the AFCS and NFCN. It’s a matter of opinion until they start playing the “dog bone” games. (good one)
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Rating: 3.8 / 5 with 5 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 11:05 am
As a Bengal homer I would point out that Cincinnati lost both starting offensive tackles for a significant portion of the season last year. They also ran out of healthy linebackers and were forced to play safeties at LB during the second half of the New England game. They will not be as bad as advertised.
As a Bengal homer I would also point out that when Cleveland came to Cincy late in Week 16 they could have clinched the AFC North, but the Bengals handled them fairly easily and picked off Anderson 4-5 times. Only the bone-headed prevent defense and ultra conservative offense allowed Cleveland to pull within reach at the end of the game.
I don’t think Cincy will run away with the Division, but it is silly to think Cleveland is heads above the Bengals. Do they have any corners aside from Wright?
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Rating: 3.8 / 5 with 9 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 11:13 am
Florio, how can you say the Steelers did little to improve this offseason? They addressed their needs on every front, even the offensive line. The reason the line was so bad last year was because of a disgruntled Faneca. Losing him is not a bad thing; he was gone last year. Look at the tape from the Arizona game…he BLATANTLY allowed a sack in the third quarter. The coaching staff is high on Kemo, and the rest of the line has at least a year of playing experience and a mean streak on their side. With Sweed, Mendenhall, and Mewelde in the fold, our offense and special teams will be significantly better. Mark my words: Pitt will have a Top-4 offense this year, led by one of the league’s most underrated QB’s. Look at Ben’s career stats compared to the other greats at this point in their careers; Marino, Favre, Brady, Montana, Aikman…Big Ben’s stats and winning percentage are as good or better than them all.
Regarding the “aging” defense, a healthy Taz and Aaron Smith will change your about them. If they don’t, the up-and-coming youngsters Timmons and Woodley certainly will. The only weakness is free safety, but if Ryan Clark can come back healthy, look out! The Steelers, despite the toughest schedule in the leage by far, will prove to all the doubters, you included, that you don’t mess with the ‘Burgh! Go Steelers!
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Rating: 1.7 / 5 with 13 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 11:13 am
As a long time Browns fan, I agree with the article to a point. I really think that 8-8 could win the North. Or a team like the Bungles or the Ravens could fatten up on a last place schedule.
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Rating: 2.8 / 5 with 5 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 11:17 am
Enjoy Mike Florio, but he seems to have a combined AFC North and Steelers bias. The truth is from year to year you don’t know who will be a good team. Last year there were 6 ‘06 playoff teams that didn’t make the playoffs the following year. Using last year’s results to predict this year’s toughest division is not anything near an exact science. The winner of this division WILL have double digit wins.
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Rating: 3.65 / 5 with 6 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 11:21 am
You people complain about florio writing too many favre stories, and even when he writes something else, you complain that he writes to many favre stories. We’ve all heard the joke, “oh this isn’t about favre? can you make this about favre?”
SHUT UP
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Rating: 4.5 / 5 with 12 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Well technically, you could have a 3-13 make the playoffs in the current format, but I got news for you. Not gonna happen. I highly highly doubt that we’ll see a sub .500 team in the playoffs. Instead of having everyone in the AFC North lose the tough games, maybe they win a few and Indy goes 11-5 or the Titans go 9-7.
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Rating: 3.85 / 5 with 7 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 11:50 am
Key injuries have been the Browns nemisis since Romeo took over - until last year. Shipping the “Frye Baby” off to the west coast after week one and keeping the injury bug at bay made all the difference in ‘07.
Anderson is solid and Quinn is there learning and waiting. The O line is shored up, running game actually got some yards and scores last year. Edwards made the Pro Bowl along with Josh Cribbs. The D should be a year better.
Bringing in Stallworth-less was a major bad move, the guy is a “has been” who’s last good season was with the Saints long ago and he’s always injured. This dead beat could end up being poisen in the locker room of this young team. Look for more from Cribbs and Winslow Jr while Stallworth-less remains a non-factor and waste of money.
Knocking the Brownies is fashionable yet they proved last year they could play a bit. It’s already more of the same this year and the first snap hasn’t happened yet.
They almost got a drink from the playoff well last year and will be hungry again this year. The schedule may be tougher, so is the team - look for them to step up to the challenge and don’t count on a big fall off unless they are seriously bitten by the injury bug.
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Rating: 1.8 / 5 with 5 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Florio,
Actually kinda agree with you - this could be an ugly year for the AFC North - but I do think the Steelers have a shot at getting to 11 wins - a good chance of getting to 10 - and 90% probability of getting to 9 - key will be to get at least 4 wins out of the division.
I know you feel Faneca was a huge loss and that it was Ben’s fault they lost him - but let’s wait and see how the Jet’s running game does with him on board - I saw him miss a lot of blocks last year and get beat badly - it may be that it was due to a bad center - or he is getting a bit long in the tooth.
Cheers!
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Rating: 2 / 5 with 7 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
If it’s Brown(ies) Flush it down. 6-10 for the mistake on the lake. As a Bengals (or Bungals) fan I hate the Steelers, but year in and Year out they whip up on the Browns and Bengals. Right there that is four wins, plus add two from the old coot Ravens. Steelers take the division, and Bengals finish 2nd with a 9-7 record, but no playoffs.
No Ravens fan you are not getting No.4 from Green Bay.
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Rating: 1.45 / 5 with 14 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
As an exercise, plot the win/loss record (%) of one year against the following year. You will be amazed, as I was, just how poorly a prior year’s record predicts the next years results. The r-squared for the 5 year pairs I looked at were all below 0.1.
That tells me that rolling 6 dice, once per club per game for every week and counting the results as a score prediction will yield results as good as using last years records.
The winner of the AFC North will have at least 10 victories and it will probably be the Steelers.
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Rating: 2.15 / 5 with 8 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
i agree that it’ll be a tough year for the division. i’d imagine the division winner will probably be 9-7, maybe 10-6. i think the browns and bengals will be exposed. its hard to pick against the steelers, who have been pretty consistently good, but i wouldnt be suprised if baltimore suprised some people. harbaugh is just what the doctor ordered for a veteran team that had become complacent. they still have alot of talent, especially on defense.
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Rating: 2 / 5 with 4 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Florio’s spittin’ out words to see where they land. His thoughts are no more credible than Kreskin’s are. I assume that the AFC North will still go ahead and play this year in spite of florio’s ersatz prognostications.
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Rating: 3.2 / 5 with 5 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
It appears that the Steelers are the consensus pick of the posters here to win the division. If they do win it with the schedule presented to them this year I will be highly impressed.
I have a feeling that this year the Steelers will struggle and the Ravens will battle it out with the Browns for dominance in the AFCN.
Don’t be suprised to see the Bengals and Steelers struggling to be more than 2-6 after the mid point of the season. Watch for the Rooney brothers to set up greyhound races at half time to give the fans a reason to cheer.
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Rating: 3.65 / 5 with 6 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
I sense a 9-7 division winner in the AFC North. Or a 9-6-1.
I also wouldn’t be shocked to see all the teams in that division to be .500 or better.
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Rating: 2 / 5 with 3 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
What I don’t understand is this- The last article (I remember) Florio writing was pointing out the huge turnover every year for playoff teams- Which (if I’m not mistaking) equates to different teams having the majority of winning records throughout the year (play off teams), right? IF thats the case, why is so much time spent speculating on how brutal the schedules are GOING to be, when you’ve already proven that a new set of teams will rise up? Every win is big in this league, I dont care who’s playing who.
Also, to all of you who now think its “fashionable” to pile on those who “fashionably” picked the Browns as their “darlings” of the AFC… if there wasn’t something to it, they wouldn’t be writing about it- the Browns must be doing something right.
I dont remember anyone being “fashionable”, and picking the Browns a couple years ago.
The facts are the Browns won 10 games last year, resigned all key free agents, and addressed the key weakness on their team- Defense, specifically RUN defense. Without going into what other teams did (or didnt do) Why wouldnt the Browns be considered one of the top (potential playoff) teams in the AFC?
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Rating: 1.65 / 5 with 3 rating(s)
July 14th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
Ok, let’s try being logical for a change. Yes, the schedule is brutal, but name a team that improved its team more than the Browns. They have a powerful offense, and with the added beef and much improved defense. Seems to me the teams with the rough schedule are those playing Cleveland.
PM
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Rating: 2 / 5 with 4 rating(s)