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Paul Zimmerman of Sports Illustrated has offered up his pre-preseason prediction for the 2008 Super Bowl winner, and his choice should make every fan of the Minnesota Vikings very afraid.
Yes, Dr. Z picks the Vikings.
In the modern NFL, it doesn’t pay to be a preseason media darling. Those teams tend to see the “A” game more often from opponents primed to knock them down a peg or two. In a system that has made the talent gap between the best and worst teams is narrower than ever (with perhaps the exception of the very best and the very worst), intangibles matter.
Zimmerman picked the Saints a year ago. After an unlikely resurgence in 2006, capped by a berth in the NFC title game, they were a trendy pick to make it at least one step farther in 2007. But a rough early-season schedule marched the Saints out of the playoff hunt.
This year, the Vikings travel to Green Bay for the prime-time Week One Favre-Fest, before returning home to face the Colts and the Panthers. The Vikes then travel to Tennessee and New Orleans. Would a 2-3 start really surprise anyone?
The slate of games also features road tests in Tampa and Jacksonville, and a season-ending visit from the Giants. Sure, the rest of the division plays basically the same schedule. But winning the NFC North with a 9-7 mark would mean playing in the wild-card round at home, and then taking the dome show into the January elements for the rest of the run.
History is also against the Vikings, when it comes to being a presumptive preseason favorite. In 1988 and 1989, they failed to deliver. In 1999, a year after the 15-1 campaign that collapsed under Gary Anderson’s only missed kick of the year, they struggled early and were no match for the Rams in the playoffs.
In 2005, the Vikings were expected to be among the league’s elite, even though it was their first season without Randy Moss. Then came a 1-4 start, followed not long thereafter by Daunte Culpepper’s knee implosion.
Some teams can perform well despite the glare of high expectations. The Vikings, however, have traditionally proven that they can’t. So the one thing Vikings fans should be rooting for over the next couple of months is that no one else follows Dr. Z’s lead.
June 22nd, 2008 at 6:44 am
The Vikes have no QB and a RB made out of glass.
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Rating: 2.6 / 5 with 17 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 6:49 am
….whatever….throw “Dr.Z’s” prediction in the pile with the rest of the media’s predictions…they are all USELESS
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Rating: 4.9 / 5 with 9 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 7:01 am
Finally no more talk about the vikings doing well, its been obvious they wont do anything this season anyways. They have some star players but the only one that counts is AP and i still dont think he can last a whole season going back to college. Other then ap the other star players arent big enough role players and as usual their passing offense will continue to be horrendous. Thanks DR. Z for confirming what was thought all along.
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Rating: 2 / 5 with 9 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 7:18 am
Well, on paper at least, the Vikes and the ‘Boys should probably be the favorites to be the NFC representative in the Superbowl, followed by the Packers and the Eagles. All these teams would appear to have a significant shot at the post-season.
But, yeah, those first five games will be a good test. Emotions will be running high at Lambeau for the opener, Green Bay is a solid team and AR is no slouch - could go either way. But the Colts are not invulnerable, especially early in the year, and the Panthers seem likely to still inconsistently underperform (though they’ll probably be a challenger in their division race). The Titans and the Saints still seem like second-tier teams, though the Saints seem a bit closer to breaking through. Not dissing TEN, just feel that their braintrust didn’t make enough of the right offseason moves to get them over the hump. Anyway, I see a 3-2 or 4-1 start likely for the Vikes.
After that, the Vikes probably should pick up six wins from DET, CHI, ATL and ARI, and possibly their home games with GB and the Giants (last game of the season and maybe the loss that keeps the Giants out of the playoffs) and the road game at TB. HOU at home and JAX on the road would be the bigger tests. So, I’m guessing they win their division (GB a close second) with a record of 11-5 to 13-3.
Of course, this is all based on what I see “on paper” and assumes that there are no significant injuries. One way or another, it seems to me that the Vikes will be as exciting to follow this year as the Pack was last year, so backhanded props of a sort to Dr. Z for being the first to start the hype.
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Rating: 3.7 / 5 with 10 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 8:15 am
I want a whole bag of whatever it is that Zimmerman is smoking, it just has to be good $$$hit. The Vikings have possibly the dumbest QB (at least as measured by Mr. Wonderlic) Head Coach combination in the NFL. Every Sunday, there are two villages in MN that are short on their standard quota idiot.
But seriously, this just goes to show you how poorly the national media understands the game. This team has no QB, a a secondary that gets lit up like a Christmas Tree every Sunday and no heart.
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Rating: 2.4 / 5 with 14 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 8:32 am
I like the pick. The Vikes have a great left tackle, great defensive end, great running back, and Jackson is being tutored by one of the most accurate QBs to play the game (Rich Gannon, whose Oakland years were phenomenal).
Unless their secondary craps out, I really don’t see too many teams beating the Vikes. People usually bash Jackson, but I think he’ll be able to do what’s asked of him: dink and dunk the offense down the field and don’t throw any picks. The RBs and kicker will score the points while the D holds.
It’s old-school, and I like it. Sure hope I get the top pick in my fantasy league this year so I can scoop AP! I’d say Dallas is the top team in the NFC but we all know what happens to them in the playoffs…
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Rating: 3.7 / 5 with 7 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 8:41 am
….Oh PUH-LEESE….Dr.Z says this…Peter King says that..I’m amazed at the people who lap up what the “talking heads” say, as if it’s gospel…did they go to some “special” college to study football? They do the same thing the average fan does,they WATCH THE GAMES….The opinions of these gum-flappers are no more valid than yours and mine….go back and check the RESULTS of these “expert predictions” from years past….they are WRONG 99% of the time……COMPLETELY USELESS CRAP
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Rating: 4 / 5 with 8 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 8:50 am
Anyone who picks a team quarterbacked by Tarvaris Jackson to win the Super Bowl needs to hang it up. Dr Z’s should be put out to pasture.
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Rating: 2.5 / 5 with 8 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 9:07 am
“all bets are off” 2007 giants
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Rating: 1 / 5 with 3 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 9:49 am
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…………..
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Rating: 2.15 / 5 with 7 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 9:58 am
They will will make the playoffs. Superbowl? probably not.
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Rating: 2.8 / 5 with 5 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 10:09 am
Dr. Z is not the only ‘expert’ picking the Vikings to do well this year. As proof of the backhanded comment by Profootball talk, the Vikings have not lived up to expectations for some time. What is important though is that most of these players, and coach were not privy to the underacheiving Vikings of the past. It seems to be a bit of a reach for PFT to label players who were not with Minnesota at the time.
The addition of Jared Allen puts a whole different light on this team. He’s not just a situational pass rusher, he plays the whole game, and very well I might add.
Where Dr. Z could go wrong in a hurry is assuming that Tarvaris Jackson will improve considerably this year, and take this team to the promise land. I’m one to believe that the Vikes could have a very good year if they stay healthy. The other wild card is that Childress hasn’t exactly shown to be a top notch coach. His draft team has done extremely well, but the nuances of being a successful coach in this league still might elude him. I don’t see the Vikes as Super Bowl Champions this year, but they have the talent to make some serious noise.
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Rating: 4.45 / 5 with 11 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 10:11 am
From what I remember Dr. Z has a history of picking a darkhorse every year instead of the boring, but more likely, pick of a team coming off a deep playoff run (much like someone picking an underdog to win the NCAA basketball tournament instead of picking a No. 1 seed). So take it for what it’s worth.
His pick was based on three factors: 1) That the Vikings are the best team in the NFL at running and stopping the run, 2) the pass defense will improve with the addition of Jared Allen and some new players in the secondary, and 3) that Tavaris Jackson will be a pleasant surprise based on Brad Childress’ direction.
Now most fans will not argue with the first two points.
The third point is really the bold prediction.
Most will dismiss his point, and it’s understandable why based on Tavaris Jackson’s play in his first year as a starter. But if you read it as a why Tavaris “COULD” be a Super Bowl winning QB (his arm, his mental approach to the game, working with a coach who has had success with QBs in the past, players’ confidence in him, improvement at WR, he’s at a point in his career where QBs typically “get it” and improvement skyrockets, etc.), and not necessarily a bold statement saying Tavaris “WILL” be the Super Bowl winning QB.
I know its written as the Vikings WILL win the Super Bowl due in part to improved play of Tavaris Jackson. But if you understand that when Dr. Z makes these predictions his “WILL WIN” the Super Bowl is just his way of saying “COULD WIN” the Super Bowl if certain things happen, so if it does happen, he can lay claim to being one of the people who predicted it first.
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Rating: 3.8 / 5 with 8 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 10:38 am
well in the course of making my weekly spread pix i used to consult dr. z. then when it appeared the model was kicking his ass, regularly and over the course of years, i jettisoned dr. z. he makes a pick of “his team” or “teams” and he sticks with them. that’s nice, but i would like to stick with whoever covers… and uh… it usually changes every week.
fer instance, he had a thing for carolina awhile back, unrequited love.
vikes dont have a qb, at least not one they will play regularly till tj goes down. their pass d should improve this year. can they get it done on o without their lt? i wouldnt pick them to win the nfc north just yet.
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Rating: 2.5 / 5 with 4 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 10:47 am
JimmySmith…you’re. a. douche. DB’s are only as good as the pass rush, so being “lit up like a chrstmas tree every Sunday” is a direct reflection on the d-line, which is significantly improved. Now that that is out of the way…
I have no facts to. support what I’m about to say but I imagine QB’s that are named the starter their second year in the league generally don’t do well that year. T-Jack looked good the latter half of last season, so obviously he should continue his improvment and be a managable QB. My only real knock on him is his toughness.
Dr. Z’s prediction, on paper, isn’t a horrible one. Do I think they win it (not that anyone cares), no, but they should make a nice run in the playoffs.
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Rating: 3.2 / 5 with 5 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 11:13 am
Dr. Z is a hack who lets personal preference get into his writings/predictions.
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Rating: 4.2 / 5 with 5 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 11:19 am
Shamrock, our Rb is not made of glass. A cheap shot by Harris to the knee’s put hiim out last year. Not gonna question the QB. I would like to see Booty start!! As for Dr. Z’s prediction, they sould call him Dr. Wrong. Every NFL Season I keep the SI NFL Preview Issue and see how wrong he is. Every week during the NFL season I look at is weekly pics and they are wrong. This is crap and I would personally like to thank him from Vikings Nation the curse he put on our team this year by jumping on the band wagaon. I’ll be the first to push you off when you arrive!!
Yak a.k.a. vWo!!
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Rating: 2.65 / 5 with 3 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 11:24 am
If people actually took the time to look at how Jackson performed last year compared to other first year starters, they wouldn’t be bashing Jackson. Statistically he did comparable and even better than a bunch of hall of fame quarterbacks when they were in their first year of starting, not to mention he was 8-4 as a starter (the only stat that matters). He was not a first overall pick, he can from a Div-II school, so he needs time to progress. Jackson does done no worse, and even better than some of the greatest quarterbacks of all time at this point in his career, so to say Jackson isn’t good enough or is a bust need to go learn a thing or two about quarterback development. People who bash Jackson do nothing but display their own ignorance.
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Rating: 5 / 5 with 3 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 11:44 am
Regarding the possibility of “taking the dome show into the January elements for the rest of the run,” one could argue that this version of the Vikings is much more suited for nasty January weather than most other teams. Best against the run, top-2 RB, great OLine to grind it out, efficient but not spectacular QB.
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Rating: 5 / 5 with 1 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 11:49 am
There is no risk for writers to put these predictions together. I save football annuals and fantasy guides so I can go back and read how far off some of these guys were with a few years of hindsight. These guys just want to pose arguments and have people buy their newspaper or magazine. Maybe win some fans over in a new market. If there was an end of the year meeting for all these prognosticators to face electo-shock treatment with a voltmeter consistent with how far a team made it through the playoffs, you’d see a lot more picks for New England and Indy to win it all.
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Rating: 3 / 5 with 2 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 12:14 pm
Jimmysmith says:
“I want a whole bag of whatever it is that Zimmerman is smoking, it just has to be good $$$hit. The Vikings have possibly the dumbest QB (at least as measured by Mr. Wonderlic) Head Coach combination in the NFL. Every Sunday, there are two villages in MN that are short on their standard quota idiot. ”
I seriously doubt that the Vikings will make it to the superbowl, but your statement about Jackson’s intelligence is just plain wrong. And, you are overstating the importance of the wonderlic. Jackson scored a 19 on the wonderlic, which is a whole 3 points lower than Brett Favre, the same score as Derek Anderson, and 5 points better than Dan Marino. So much for the value of that test in determining an NFL QB’s success.
Even the most casual observers of the NFL understand that it usually takes more than a year to learn the QB position, regardless of wonderlic score. Jackson will very likely be better this year than he was last year, especially considering the improvement of the receiving corps with the addition of Berrian and the continued development of Rice and Allison. Jackson is still a question mark, but it is unreasonable to predict is future performance based on his first year as a starter.
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Rating: 5 / 5 with 2 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 12:28 pm
Dirty hit? yeah right. Keep thinking that, and avoid the truth that you are unlikely to ever see AP finish a full season. Plus that bandwagon you talked about, isn’t that the entire Viking fanbase that is on that bandwagon?
@Tim - I thought the Vikings D-line was already bad ass, and that Jared made it super bad ass. I mean how can a DL with two probowl starters be “significantly improved”.
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Rating: 1 / 5 with 4 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Prediction (according to Encarta Dictionary’s english edition) means: A statement of what somebody thinks will happen in the future. I don’t put much stock into most predictions. Usually they predict the team(s) that will win in a given year, are the teams that won it the previous year.
As a Vikings fan, I hope he is right. The team has made some definite personel upgrades. We no longer have to worry about Iron Hands Williamson. I believe Berrian is a better receiver, and certainly can’t be any worse. That should help the running game. We also have one of…no…make that the best set of defensive tackles in football. The addition of Allen will only make that line better. We should be able to apply pressure on opposing QBs…that should help our secondary.
Everyone is so quick to knock T. Jackson around. Let me ask you…how good was J. Elway, or D. Marino in their first season…I don’t recall seeing the Broncos or Dolphins winning the Super Bowl in their rookie season. Yep…Jackson really only has 1 season under his belt. Most people will tell you that the most significant improvement in a QB is between the 1st and 2nd seasons. Not to mention the fact that he made significant improvement towards the end of last season.
I am not saying the Vikings will win the Super Bowl, I am not that arrogant or ignorant. I think it requires a wait and see attitude. I think they have as good a shot as anyone else at this point of the season, and the first 5 games or so will definitely be a test.
GO VIKINGS!!!!!
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Rating: 5 / 5 with 2 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 12:40 pm
The reason the queens run defense was so “good” was because everyone simply passed against them, as they couldn’t stop it. Hell, in the green Bay game, Darren Sharper even batted Ruvell Martin, our WR, the ball so he could get a TD. Nice guy, really- once a packer, always a packer I guess.
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Rating: 3 / 5 with 2 rating(s)
June 22nd, 2008 at 12:50 pm
2102: Harris gave AD a cheap shot?? LMAO. Its called a football hit. Funny how ZERO of the people covering/reviewing the game mentioned that the tackle was anywhere near cheap. Don’t be bitter that your entire teams’ success will go down the tubes if AD gets tackled hard again.
Picking a Jackson-QBed team to do anything is laughable. Sure the Bears got to a SB w/o a decent QB. But ALL THREE of their defensive groups were great, not just the line. They also had a scrub named Devin Hester that single-handidly won at least a few games for them.
I wish there was some way to bet on games w/ people you talk to in forums, cause I’d put $1000 on the Pack for that MNF opener. Its great how Rodgers has never even started a game and he is already the best QB in the division!!
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Rating: 1 / 5 with 2 rating(s)