When we handed out our 2008 NFL draft grades – each team got an incomplete — we mentioned that it makes more sense to go back and hand out grades from drafts three or four years ago. Several readers and commenters challenged us to rewind to 2004 or 2005 and do just that, but we were too lazy.
Still, the arrest on Sunday of the No. 4 overall pick in 2005 has prompted us to go back to the first round from that year and ponder the curious crop of busts that emerged in the first 32 picks. Let’s have a look:
1. Alex Smith, quarterback, 49ers: When the first overall pick is competing three years later with Shaun Hill and J.T. O’Sullivan for the starting job, that’s by definition a BUST.
2. Ronnie Brown, running back, Dolphins: After a so-so first year, Brown has been solid. A torn ACL derailed his opportunity to have a strong third year. Though he hasn’t lived up to the billing of the No. 2 overall pick, we’re not yet ready to call him a bust. (But we could be after 2008.)
3. Braylon Edwards, receiver, Browns: Edward is becoming one of the best receivers in the league. Clearly, not a bust.
4. Cedric Benson, running back, Bears: He’s been a disappointment on the field, and his arrest conjures memories of past incidents in college. Without question, he’s a BUST.
5. Cadillac Williams, running back, Buccaneers: Williams made a huge splash as a rookie, but can’t stay healthy. After rupturing a patellar tendon in 2007, he might not play again. If he does, he might never be the same. Based on his top-five selection, he’s a BUST.
6. Pacman Jones, cornerback, Titans: Do we even have to type the word?
7. Troy Williamson, receiver, Vikings: We once tried to throw Williamson a compliment, but he dropped that, too. BUST.
8. Antrel Rolle, cornerback, Cardinals: When a cornerback might be shifted to safety at only age 25, it’s not because he’s a great cornerback. BUST.
9. Carlos Rogers, cornerback, Redskins: He’s on the path to being declared a bust. We’ll give him one more year.
10. Mike Williams, receiver, Lions: Maybe he wouldn’t have been a BUST if the Lions had made him an offensive lineman.
11. DeMarcus Ware, linebacker, Cowboys: A 2006 Pro Bowl + a 2007 Pro Bowl = not a bust.
12. Shawne Merriman, linebacker, Chargers: He could still be a bust if he gets suspended again for steroids (or blown up on a regular basis by a pint-sized running back); for now, though, Merriman is clearly not a bust.
13. Jammal Brown, tackle, Saints: The Pro Bowler in 2006 slipped a bit last year, and the Saints were rumored to be shopping him. Still, he’s not a bust.
14. Thomas Davis, safety/linebacker, Panters: He’s not spectacular, but he started 16 games in 2007. Not a bust.
15. Derrick Johnson, linebacker, Chiefs: Johnson made a splash as a rookie and hasn’t taken it quite to the next level in two years since, but he’s not a bust.
16. Travis Johnson, defensive tackle, Texans: When the biggest hit of your career is one that you unknowingly put on a quarterback’s head with your knee, you might be a redneck. And a BUST.
We’ll do the back half of the round later. If we remember. For now, feel free to chime in on our thoughts regarding the first sixteen.
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May 5th, 2008 at 9:50 am
This is great. You cannot hand out draft grades right after the draft. They are about as accurate as the mock draft that the talking heads created before the draft.
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May 5th, 2008 at 10:06 am
I’m a Lions fan (sigh) living in Tampa and I met Mike Williams about 2 weeks before the draft. All I could think as I walked away from that meeting is “Wow, whoever is dumb enough to draft this guy is going to be seriously regretting that decision.” He was one of the dumbest human beings I’ve ever met. Good job Millen.
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May 5th, 2008 at 10:23 am
Smith was a dumb pick by the 49ers, but he is still too young to be truly labelled a bust - at least give him a chance in Martz offense first.
Florio, examine how many busts have come from USC in the last few years, off the top of my head - Williams, Jarrett, Leinhart(?), Bush (?), Lenwhale(?) have all been busts or massive underachievers. I mention it cos a boatload more were taken this year…
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Rating: 3 / 5 with 2 rating(s)
May 5th, 2008 at 10:24 am
The 8 players that Florio identified as busts signed contracts worth a total of $227.3 million in ‘05. Of course, what they got versus what they signed for are two completely different things. But some of them made out pretty damn well. Mike Williams had over $10 million of his contract guaranteed. I didn’t bother to look at what was guaranteed… I don’t have THAT much time on my hands.
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May 5th, 2008 at 10:31 am
It would be interesting to go back and see what teams were given what “draft grades” by the pundits at the time to see if those grades were realized.
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May 5th, 2008 at 10:34 am
I too agree that many rookies never live up to there 1st round status,But there are as many second thru 7th(undrafted) that out perform there rookie contracts as well. The current system is not that bad. The good teams tend to draft well, and the bad teams have terrible draft history. If everyone drafted well, then we would really have parody. Admit it 95% of you would have paid Reggie Bush how much to go #1? Turns out he should have been a third rounder. The pay scale probibly needs tweeked. But that won’t help teams draft any better. Bad teams make bad personel moves weather it’s in the draft or free agency.
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May 5th, 2008 at 10:36 am
It is about time we started looking back around draft time instead of hyping up a bunch of college players who may or may not be any good in the NFL.
Phil Savage did a great job getting the best player in the draft with the #3 pick. Wimbley is a good player, but it is still a questionable move to trade down with the Ravens and pass on Nagta. Trying to fill that gap with fat DTs from other teams instead of taking the best 2 gap tackle in sevral years is a move that will come back to haunt the Clowns like those Lucy and Charlie Brown cartoons.
The Ravens know how well Phil does his job, that is why they hired and developed him. Don’t forget how close the Clowns were to canning him 2 years ago, and we would have welcomed him back. But befoe you go blowing his trumpet as a genius GM, let him win the division or at least make the playoffs. Plenty of teams that look good on paper also get a wipe of the Browns.
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May 5th, 2008 at 10:53 am
“Calling Chucky’s Cadillac a bust goes a bit too far in my eyes. RBs are always a gamble. He clearly showed that he can perform. It’s simply idiotic to take a RB that high. I wouldn’t call the pick “wasted”.”
So what the hell do you call a pick that, 3 years later, has no impact on the team?
Of course it’s a wasted pick…the guy might never play again. If the guy never puts his pad’s on again…what else can you call the number 5 pick from the 2005 draft?
WASTED.
So if your #5 overall pick was a waste, that player must be a bust, right? Or does this just make way too much sense?
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May 5th, 2008 at 11:04 am
—”I’m not sure it’s fair to label C. Williams a BUST but not R. Brown. I’d rather have Ronnie Brown right now, too, over Cadillac Williams, but they aren’t THAT far apart that one’s a bust and one isn’t. They’ve both suffered serious injuries and have yet to come back from them. Give them another year or two.”
It is very fair to call Cadillac a BUST and not Ronnie… afterall, which running back was REGRESSING while the other was on his way to a PRO BOWL season prior to the injuries???
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May 5th, 2008 at 11:30 am
Let’s see…Shawn Merriman gets “blown up” by a Maurice Jones-Drew but then he also “blew up” Priest Holmes so bad that Holmes is no longer in the league! I’d say that was a “Lights out” performance! Call it a wash.
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May 5th, 2008 at 11:42 am
Kudos for doing this analysis. With so many bold predictions made before and after the draft by media types, its good to read someone actually go back and analyze how these draft classes performed.
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May 5th, 2008 at 11:55 am
The only one I disagree with is Alex Smith. Give him Norv Turner for 3-4 years and watch him become Eli-Manning-In-The-Playoffs-Like.
And Cadillac is a BUST only because of injuries. He is really good in the 20 games he plays… per decade.
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May 5th, 2008 at 11:55 am
I think your assessment of Carlos Rogers is a bit harsh. I thought he was an above average CB on a good defense. You can’t expect Pro Bowls for every 1st round pick. He’s a decent player. Maybe not what you expect from the #9 pick in the draft, but he is not a bust.
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May 5th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
With the way the NFL talent behaves these days, I’m starting to be a little concerned for your overall safety Florio.
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May 5th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Ronnie Brown was having an exceptional year in 2007 with undoubtedly a horrible team prior to his ACL injury… He may or may not fully recover but assuming he does and by projecting a healthy Ronnie Brown and Ricky ‘My Main Man’ Williams, as a dynamic running option in tandem with a good nucleus of O-Line help added by The Sparano’s. You’ll have to strongly take Ronnie Brown’s name out of further consideration for the dreaded ‘BUST’ syndrome.
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May 5th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
You all keep comparing Williams (Caddy) to Brown. The truth is that Brown is by far the superior back. Williams had a decent first year but even faded at the end of that one. Brown had two solid season and was well on the way to a third when getting injured. Brown is not a bust, as long as he can come back. Williams is a bust due to the ineptitude of Gruden to effectively change his system to meet the skills of his players. His hard headedness in that will lead to his eventual (and should have happened already) firing. For being a QB “genious” he has yet to develop anyone in Tampa and misused both Williams and Alstott every season sicne the first team, which was Dungy’s.
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May 5th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Brasho: Three seasons is the exact point to evaluate a QB’s development. A top flight QB should have come into his own during the third season as a starter. Smith is not the answer in SF. As Florio stated, if he is still battling for a roster spot in his 4th year than he is a BUST.
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May 5th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Florio is right about Cadillac Williams. If you can’t stay healthy enough to play, you are a bust. He isn’t scoring TD’s or helping win games when he’s hurt…and he has been hurt every year. Go back another year and label Michael Clayton a bust too.
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May 5th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
- 7. Troy Williamson, receiver, Vikings: We once tried to throw Williamson a compliment, but he dropped that, too. BUST. -
I almost wet myself. BRILLIANT! Soup for everyone.
On Ronnie Brown, he was averaging 5.2 yards per carry and well on his way to a 1,200 yard season before his injury last season behind an offensive line that was down right offensive- for lack of a better savvy description. He’s far from being a bust. It would be nice to see him finish an entire season though.
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May 5th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
How can you people say that Carnell Williams is not a bust? He is horrible! Aside from his first 3 games in the league, he has rushed for 100 yards in a game only a few more times, once in the past two seasons or so. He runs east-west always trying to break the big play yet he doesn’t have the breakaway speed to do anything if he did. You can’t point to one injury and say he’s a bust becaue he got hurt, you can look at his history of being constantly injured. Also, Carnell Williams might have the worst hands for pass catching in the NFL… Last season he caught 3 passes, he also dropped 3 passes… he is a liability when on the field which basically means he is an enormous BUST!
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May 5th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
How can you possibly call Alex Smith a bust.
1-He was forced to play his first season because the QB’s in front of him were terrible
2-His second season he played brilliantly. Everyone in the league said he was going to be a great QB and that the 49ers were heading for the playoffs
3- 3rd game of the 3rd season he gets his shoulder ripped apart. He tries to play before having surgery and it’s still damaged.
Alex Smith is entering his 4th season. He’s 24 years old this week and is on his 4th Offensive Coordinator.
Please explain to me how anyone can possibly fairly judge what kind of QB Alex Smith is. And can we please not forget that he’s been trying to play on one of the worst teams of the past decade??
Please people, show a little football knowledge and give the kid a chance to actually prove himself.
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May 5th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Derrick Johnson is one of the most underrated players in the league. You can compare his numbers in 2007 to Lance Briggs, who made the Pro Bowl playing in the same Cover 2 scheme. And Johnson constantly puts up better numbers than Merriman in every measure but sacks, which stands to reason since Johnson doesn’t rush the passer nearly as often.
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May 5th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
It’s hard to accurately call a QB a bust after 3 seasons. I’m no 49ers fan, so I don’t particularly care for Alex Smith, but it’s far too early to call him a bust. Just ask Brett Favre, Steve Young, and Vinnie Testaverde, all labeled complete failures by the team that drafted them (and a lot of the fans/media, etc). Two of them are without a doubt had HOF careers, the other was certainly better than average, but not great. GRanted, Young wasn’t a first round draft pick (first pick of supplemental) but the point is, each of these were deemed busts, and none of them turned out to be.
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May 5th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
I feel for Alex Smith with his lack of a constant offense but still as a qb you gotta make plays. When he led s.f. on a game winning drive against Arizona last year, I thought maybe he had finally come out of his shell, a couple of injuries later and he is done. The guy has been getting murdered by opposing defenses every year and every game, is it his fault? Maybe not but David Carr got sacked more than any other player during the span, and look at where he is now. I remember it was between Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith for the first pick, Alex made a lot of money but Rodgers got to sit behind one of the greatest qbs to ever play the game. So who really got the better out of that situation between them. As far as the lions go, have they made a good pick since Sanders?
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May 5th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Compare the career stats of Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams, and the edge goes to Ronnie Brown. Keep in mind that Brown has not exactly been running behind Larry Little, Jim Langer, and Bob Kuechenberg the last 3 years. The Bucs, on the other hand, have a good and improving offensive line. Notice the yards per carry and productivity catching the ball out of the backfield.
Cadillac, 32 career games, 569-2184 3.8 10 TDs; 53 REC 294 5.5 0 TDs
Brown, 35 career games, 567-2517 4.4 13 TDs; 104 REC 897 8.6 2 TDs
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Rating: 5 / 5 with 1 rating(s)