Even though the Miami Dolphins reportedly have settled on the player whom they regard as the top guy available in this year’s draft pool, there’s no guarantee that the guy at the top of the board is the player they’ll draft.

Because they hold the first overall pick, the Fins have the ability to negotiate with as many of the players as they want, and can sign one of them even before the draft begins on April 26.

According to the Miami Herald, the Dolphins are negotiating with Michigan tackle Jake Long.

But that hardly means that Jake Long will be the pick.  The Fins surely will use their ability to leverage the top players (such as Jake Long, Chris Long, and Glenn Dorsey), using the promise of being the first overall pick as a carrot to get them to sign a contract, and to avoid risking a slide. 

The fact that the Dolphins are talking to Long highlights the potential conflict of interest for his agent, Tom Condon. 

Condon also represents Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan.  If/when the Fins negotiate with Condon about Ryan, they’ll be talking to the same person about whether a deal will be done with either of his two clients.

It’s actually a multi-layered conflict of interest for Condon.  If the Fins are willing to make Ryan the No. 1 overall pick with a deal equal to or less than the contract paid a year ago to Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell, Ryan needs to ask himself whether, in the end, he’ll make as much or more if he’s not the No. 1 overall pick.

At best, Ryan would otherwise be No. 3.  If the Falcons don’t select him with the third overall pick, he could fall to No. 5 (Chiefs), No. 6 (Jets), or No. 8 (Ravens).  If he gets past No. 8, he likely will make it into the teens.

So with the money dropping astronomically once a player falls beyond the top three or four picks, Ryan would be wise to get the best deal done at No. 1.

But, for Condon, doing a “bad” deal at No. 1 would open him up to relentless criticism from other agents, who’d use the contract aggressively in recruiting future players whom Condon has targeted.

Last year, there were rumors that the Raiders had made an offer at No. 1 to quarterback Brady Quinn, also a Condon client.  In hindsight, Quinn surely would have preferred to take whatever he could have gotten in Oakland — he eventually was picked at No. 22, and he’s now stuck on the bench in Cleveland with a contract that won’t pay him big money unless he plays.

So we expect the Dolphins to negotiate with multiple players over the next two weeks.  And we’re hoping that the players realize the stakes, and that they recognize that their agents could be in an awkward situation, if the Fins put a firm offer on the table that is good for the player, but bad for the agent.