Here’s a look at the perceived draft needs of the Miami Dolphins, with heavy input from Matt Miller of NewEraScouting.com.
Quarterback: The departure of Cam Cameron raises serious doubt as to the team’s long-term plans for second-year quarterback John Beck. At 26, Beck is older than most players who have just completed their rookie seasons in the NFL. The Dolphins have added underrated veteran Josh McCown, who likely will push Beck for the starting job. Matt Ryan is a possibility (slim, in our view) with the first overall pick; if Bill Parcells wants the team to be as good is it can within the four years of his contract, it might not be prudent to begin Year One with the development of a high-profile rookie signal-caller. The Fins instead could be tempted to take a quarterback at the top of rounds two or three, if there’s a guy on the board whom Bill Parcells thinks can become “the guy” by 2009.
Offensive tackle: Many were surprised when tackle Anthony Alabi became one of the first victims of the Parcells purge, since Alabi, a fifth-round draft pick in 2005, was expected to enter the starting lineup in 2008. The left side is solid with 2004 first-rounder Vernon Carey, but he is more of a guard than a tackle. Julius Wilson is penciled in as the starter at right tackle.
Drafting Jake Long of Michigan would give the Dolphins a Pro-Bowl caliber offensive tackle. He could man the right side for a year and then flip to the left side, allowing Carey to move inside.
The team has also shown interest in Boston College’s Gosder Cherilus and Jeff Otah of Pitt. Both could be on the board when the Fins pick in round two.
Cornerback: Miami has made an effort to bring talent to the secondary this offseason, but little has been done to actually improve the quality of the guys on the roster. Will Allen and Andre Goodman have the inside track, but neither is considered a lock. Free safety Jason Allen could move to corner, a position he played in college, but it is likely he’ll stay at safety.
Thus, Miami could look at add at least one starting-caliber corner through the draft. G.M. Jeff Ireland has shown interest in Arizona’s Antoine Cason, a player who fits the aggressive defense employed by Parcells’ disciples.
Inside Linebacker: When Zach Thomas was cut, a huge hole opened at middle linebacker. The return to a 3-4 will ease the loss, as will the move of Channing Crowder to the inside. This leaves an opening next to him for a solid run-stopper.
Miami has been interested in Vince Hall (Virginia Tech) and J Leman (Illinois); both might be available in round three.
Strong safety: There are many bodies here, but not much genuine talent. Former Cowboy Keith Davis took the Tuna Train from Texas, but Davis is a marginal starter at best. Look for Miami to possibly address this need in the middle rounds. A player like Tom Zbikowski (Notre Dame) could give them flexibility in the secondary and special teams.
Running Back: Ronnie Brown was leading the league in rushing before going down with an injury midway through the season, but he has yet to show that he can hold up over a 16-game season. Lorenzo Booker looks to be a solid
third-down option, and there’s always the possibility of Ricky Williams contributing to the team. The departure of Jesse Chatman to the New York Jets could hurt badly.
But this year’s draft is deep at the position. Anthony Aldridge (Houston) and Justin Forsett (Cal) could instantly add some pop to the Miami offense or special teams, at a relatively low investment.
Guard: The need at this position will decrease if a starting-caliber left tackle is obtained, since this would permit Vernon Carey to be shifted to the inside. If a tackle isn’t selected, a guard will be needed. Adding Justin Smiley via free agency helps, but if Carey is going to stay at tackle more help is needed.
Receiver: A late-round speedster who can play special teams would be a nice addition. But despite the trade of Chris Chambers and the release of Marty Booker, the Fins are fairly solid at the position. Ted Ginn was a controversial first-rounder in 2007, and Ernest Wilford and Tab Perry arrived via free agency.
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March 22nd, 2008 at 8:07 pm
No mention of DE/DT, especially Chris Long. He will be a Dolphin.
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March 22nd, 2008 at 8:21 pm
1. Parcells likes Beck.
2. Carey is best suited for right tackle, not guard.
3. Ricky can hold up over a 16-game season. The only reason he missed time in 2006 was due to a broken hand from a hit by a helmet - a freak injury and not a sign of being injury prone.
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March 22nd, 2008 at 8:30 pm
I agree with Chris. I believe Parcells likes Beck. Oddly enough, McCown is being paid more. No way he brings in a high dollar guy to be a number three. The Dolphins have about $6M in cap room dedicated to QB already for 2008. You gotta have a quality backup and sure he wil be given achance to compete for the starting job but his proneness to INT’s won’t sit well with Sporano.
Carey has been said to be a better right tackle, but maybe someone here has some inside knowledge. Either way, by 2009 Carey will not be at left tackle, probably not this year.
I believe you meant Ronnie. He is not injusry prone butstuff happens and both injuries were freak. I believe he had a groin hamper him him in 2005 though.
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March 22nd, 2008 at 8:32 pm
Lots of needs, but at least you guys have recognized that one of them isn’t DE or OLB. First priority, O-line, by taking J. Long, which would allow Carey to move to RT, where he excelled two years ago (rather than guard). QB is at best a secondary need this year, as the Dolphin project will take more than one year to come together.
You left out one other position of importance to Parcells, a play making TE, as the ones currently on the roster are average. Everything else seems correct, with CB possibly taken before QB (Henne) in Parcellian draft-think.
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March 22nd, 2008 at 8:53 pm
Solid at receiver? The three guys mentioned seem like no better than #3 guys to me. Unless I am missing someone.
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March 22nd, 2008 at 8:55 pm
Miami needs help in more than one position and QB in my opinion has always been an overated position to Bill P. I wonder if they won’t trade down to pick up more players of quality in the first round.
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March 22nd, 2008 at 9:18 pm
coopdeville,
DE is definitely a need. Vonnie Holliday and MattRoth, and MAYBE jason Taylor, who may be moved this year. Regardless we are drafting for the nest 10 years and we need to have a guy who can replace JT.
LB is not a spressing of a need but Parcell’s defense is very dependent on biug LB’s and we lost Zach Thomas So Crowder Torber and Porter will be fine players but we need to recigninz e that in two years we need some replenishment. Some of the needs aren’t immediate but if the right guy falls to you, you take him.
RB is fine. If he gets hurt we just pick Gado again to back up Ricky and help Booker. No big deal.
I really believe Chris Long is the guy especially since we did not land Calvin Pace.
ACDC84: Ginn is a top notch talent. The only reason he wasn’t projected in the top 10 was his injury. He is solid. Wilford is solid and probably will excel in this sytem in the same fashion Keyshawn did. Perry will be a solid #3, but league people are scared of Tedd Ginn, Jr. Believe what you want and if Beck or McCown with those big arms can get some to throw, Ginn will BLOW UP. With a pass blocking OL Miami was a 6 win team last year, and this year if the line improvews dramatically and CB is addressed along with DE, Miami could win 9 or 10 games.
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March 22nd, 2008 at 9:46 pm
I can’t see how the Dolphins take anybody but Jake Long #1. He would be their LT for the next decade and would allow the rest of the line to fall into place. This would also allow Parcells to get a better evaluation of an upright John Beck. One could argue a franchise LT is as important as any position on the field for an offense…just ask the Browns.
You don’t give $35 million guaranteed to a 3-4 end…you just don’t and that should eliminate Chris Long from consideration.
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March 22nd, 2008 at 9:53 pm
Mike -
You don’t take Jake Long because offensive tackle is the deepest position in the entire draft. There are potential franchise offensive tackles in the second and third rounds.
Not to mention, there are no 3-4 ENDS in consideration for the top pick. Chris Long and Gholston would both play linebacker in the 3-4.
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March 22nd, 2008 at 10:06 pm
Ron,
There are 5 DE’s on the roster (4 veteran starters), including Roth who at with the same dimensions as Chris is the only one too small for the 3-4. There is one starter at OT on the roster. That’s why D-line isn’t an immediate need and O-line is, as PTF has made clear. Forget about the next ten years, what about next year? Besides Jake Long is the safest pick.
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March 22nd, 2008 at 10:14 pm
It would be ideal for the Dolphins to trade the pick, adding more picks at the top of the draft to address their many needs as outlined in the above post. If there’s any chance a deal with the Cowboys could be struck, then Bill Parcells would have to explore the issue. With the 22nd pick, the Dolphins would be able to address one of their needs in the secondary by picking either Kenny Phillips or one of the many corners available in the first round; and the 28th pick could be exercised to secure an offensive tackle.
Already with two second round picks, it would then be easy for Parcells to draft the players he feels are the best on the board, not necessarily having to address a particular need.
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March 22nd, 2008 at 10:18 pm
ChrisJNElson…Not trying to pick on you because you have some great insights, but from my understanding, and just referencing ESPN’s Scouts, INc., profile, and from my recollection of a lot of Miami reading, Chris Long is projected a s 3-4 End that can drop back and his versatility is amazing, but he has shown he can pile 30 pounds on and be that DE in Sparano’s scheme. I believe Miami is looking at him as a 3-4 end that can switch into the OLB when needed or be a 4th D-Lineman in certain coverages. Is there anything that directly disputes that because I would like to see it. Holliday would work the other end with JT as a pass rusher and a short coverage guy. I think versatility in the front seven on this team is starting to really look amazing.
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March 22nd, 2008 at 10:27 pm
ChrisJ,
Most analyst have the top 5- OT’s being drafted in the 1st round, who do you think is the equal of Jake at LT, that would be available? Besides that, if you had happened to take a look at the top 32 players on most analyst list, you would find there are as many if not more DEs, not even counting at least 2 OLBs. So DE/OLB is actually deeper. considering the fact that not all the OT’s are projected at LT, then there are even less if any that would be available in round 2. Go ahead, check it out.
Let me also ask you if you think it’s a safe pick to take a guy at #1 to play a position he’s never played, and as a result you have no tape to see how he has (or hypothetically, would) perform at that position. Do you think that’s a wise choice?
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March 22nd, 2008 at 10:31 pm
3-4 ends typically weigh around 300+ pounds. Long currently weighs around 267 and it seems more and more apparent he will have to stand up in the 3-4.
As for Miami’s current state at 3-4 end, Miami has four - Vonnie Holliday, Randy Starks, Rodrique Wright and Derreck Robinson. Holliday and Starks will start at end and Ferguson at nose tackle. Guys like Roth and Moses are way too small to play end - they’d have to stand up too.
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March 22nd, 2008 at 10:35 pm
But Matt Roth is looking like a bust or an underacheiver. We have Ferguson as a stopgap NT but still need a big mofo to rise up. We do have some talent on the DL. Rodrique Wright is going to be great nad was a steal thanks to his torn rotatoer cuff on draft day. But JT is gone this year or next (I think this year), Holliday is serviceable but isn’t the answer and remember also that the Holy Trinity of Miami will keep dumping guys they don’t want even if they can’t yet. I believe Holliday and Roth are on the short list out of there as soon as they can be deemed unnecessary, probably in 2009. Again I point out that Chris Long is smaller than ideal but he has shown the ability to bulk up and his combine numbers were extraordinary in the power department. And as someone else mentioned, the draft is stacked with Tackles. Though I agree that DL isn’t the biggest need on this team, I still think you can’t pass up Chris Long unless you can trade down.
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March 22nd, 2008 at 10:43 pm
Ron,
“Chris Long is projected a s 3-4 End that can drop back and his versatility is amazing, but he has shown he can pile 30 pounds on and be that DE in Sparano’s scheme.”
OK, which is it, because he can’t “pile on 30 pounds” between plays. If he “piles on 30 pounds” will he retain his quickness off the line? Can he even play OLB effectively and is there anything that directly shows that? It would appear that not only is there not a need for him on the roster, but no one seems to know what position he would play. That’s way to much uncertainty to invest in a #1 overall pick.
As for OLBs, there are 7 currently on the roster, and of course, 1 starting OT and 1 back up OT.
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March 22nd, 2008 at 11:25 pm
Chris J,
Where are you getting this info that Chris Long will play OLB if he is drafted by Miami? I would think that considering Long ran a 4.75 at the combine in the 40 that this may not be a great idea. After all, this is a guy projected by some to even be a 4-3 tackle OR end…and definitely a 3-4 end. Defensive line is where Long belongs because that’s where his skills will suit him most. If they do indeed move him to OLB then they are stripping Long of the “safest pick in the draft” label.
If Miami were to draft for a better fit for a 3-4 OLB then the pick would be Vernon Gholston of OSU…though he may not be worthy of #1 overall money or value.
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March 22nd, 2008 at 11:52 pm
Ideally the best scenario for Miami would be to swing a trade with Dallas for the 22, and 28 picks and Marion Barber III - maybe send Dallas back their 2nd round pick… by doing this the Fins could address their OL, CB, and RB issues in one shot.
Another scenario would be to swap 1st round picks with ATL, Raiders, or the Ravens and pick up Glenn Dorsey or Sedrick Ellis - much better fits for 3-4 DEs than Gholston or Long that would be OLBs (who knows maybe they might even fit in at NT if they bulk up - which will be a much bigger issues for the Fins going forward than DE, just ask the Niners and Browns how the 3-4 works without a good NT).
If I was a Miami fan - I’d be hoping that they find another receiver - Wilford for several seasons lead the league in dropped passes - Ginn is more of a returner - and Tab was at best 4th receiver on the Bengals (when Chris Henry was active last season)… count in the lack of a good TE (don’t young QBs like them?) and they desperately need a good possession receiver/TE.
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March 23rd, 2008 at 7:39 am
“If they do indeed move him to OLB then they are stripping Long of the “safest pick in the draft” label.”
Well said Mike. Chris is the safest pick in the draft to play DE in the 4-3, and that’s it. Even though Gholston may be more athletic to soom degree, I think the same logic applies to him as well. There are other Hybrid types that are even faster and have had experience at OLB who may be available later in the draft. Getting back to the topic of need though, D-line isn’t as urgent as O-line, that’s the bottom line.
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March 23rd, 2008 at 8:03 am
Ron,
Roth has basically the same stats as DeMarcus Spears, who was drafted ahead of him, actually he’s got even more career sacks than Spears (7.5-4.5). So it may be an over statement to refer to him as a bust. That said, much like Chris, he’s not OLB material and would ned to add at least 20 lbs to play DE in the 3-4 (currently listed at 278).
It looks like their pretty well set a NT behind Ferguson, with Soliai and Starks. Moses is the guy currently on the roster who’s projected as heir apparent at hybrid behind Taylor. Of course, there will come a time when some of these guys will be finished, but it’s not this year. Which again, is why only DBs are listed as needs on the that side of the ball by PFT.
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March 23rd, 2008 at 8:27 am
I’m not sure who would be interested in trading up. I mean the only concern Atlanta has is getting a decent QB. It wouldn’t be wise for the cowboys to trade up to 1st place to grab Darren McFadden due to the amount of guaranteed money that will need to be given to a RB. It looks like McFadden will be there in the later picks, (4-7) and they could swing a deal with any other team.
It’ll be interesting to see how it turns out. Miami, as a rebuilding team needs to focus on their O/D line performance. Skill position players can be added in a number of different ways, what’s difficult is to acquire good to pro-bowl caliber linemen. I believe Parcells will keep the pick and draft Michigan T Jake Long. Cleveland made the right decision last year by selecting T Joe Thomas, Thomas immediately transformed their offensive line, allowed 1 sack and Cleveland went from having a mediocre at best offense to having one of the better offenses in the NFL with the same skill players they had in recent years. I’m not suggesting Jake Long might be as good as Joe Thomas. But what’s important to understand is that QB/WR/RB/TE play means nothing if the O-line is weak and that should be priority #1 for the Miami Dolphins.
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March 23rd, 2008 at 5:04 pm
If the Dolphins do go OL with their #1 pick they are more likely to choose Clady from Boise State. He is a natural LT. Jake Long does not have quick enough feet to block the opposing teams quickest rushing defensive end. Long is more of a RT. The Dolphins needs are for a LT.
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March 23rd, 2008 at 7:28 pm
I think Roth is starting to come around, but I dont see how he fits in the 3-4. I doubt he has the athletisicm to stand up, and he seems a bit small to play end. I agree that Rod Wright will be a beast.
Id like to take Jake Long #1 overall. Chris Long may indeed be the “safe” pick but as has been discussed its not so safe to take a guy like that and try to plug a square peg into a round hole.
I think Ginn, Wilford, Perry, and Hagan are solid enough that receiver is not a pressing need, and I dont see us doing anything round 1 about it. What I WOULD like is to grab a guy like Fred Davis or another receiving TE.
After that I think we really need to draft a corner day 1. The draft is deep enough that we can get a quality guy round 2. Will Allen is a solid #2 corner but after that we are hurting. Please please please do not move Jason Allen back to corner right when he is starting to come around at safety.
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March 23rd, 2008 at 8:02 pm
I believe the receiving group is ok and agree on the need for a TE like Fred Davis. However if the Dolphins are going to address LT with their first pick they should go with Clady from Boise State instead of Jake Long. Clady is a much quicker OL who is a natural for the LT position that the Dolphins are in dire need of.
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March 24th, 2008 at 10:50 am
How can LT Carey be SOLID and then also need to be replaced by drafting Jake Long LT. Parcells will draft Defense, that is what he does.
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